Talking the Tropics With Mike: Likely to have tropical storm Florence soon over far E. Atlantic

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The Atlantic Basin will be more active over the next couple of weeks....

I expect to see some changes - with potential storm development - through the first couple weeks of Sept. Tropical waves moving west off Africa are increasing in number & intensity & at least a couple waves are pretty likely to develop. The uptick in activity coincides with a very persistent pattern of surface & upper level high pressure is anchored over or near the N. Atlantic which implies lower pressures to the south (the ol' what goes up, must come down postulate).

And "potential tropical cyclone six" - a TROPICAL WAVE - is just off the coast of Africa & is likely to become "Florence". There is the potential for heavy rain + some wind for the Southern Cabo Verde Islands (Cape Verde) where a tropical storm WARNING has been issued. It looks like this system will be a recurve over the Cental Atlantic next week so no direct impacts on the U.S.

Of note - & interesting - is the European model which has been trying to develop a tropical system near Fl. by Sunday/Monday by now has recently backed off showing a weaker, later to develop system. Social media & some die hard European model-bent forecasters are jumping all over this development. I'm not ready to go there yet. Such development would fit the pattern overall, but the details don't lend a lot of support yet for this scenario. The European seems to be latching on to a wave near Puerto Rico that's producing disorganized showers & t'storms over the NE Caribbean & far SW Atlantic. Shear is strong in the area of the wave now. This is a situation to watch, but I have my doubts. In any case, any low pressure that develops near Fl. Sun./Mon/Tue. would be slow to organize & relatively weak then have perhaps more potential over the Gulf next week. So I see no changes to the local - Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. holiday weekend forecast: hot/humid... onshore flow off the Atlantic... scattered overnight/morning/midday convection at the beaches/intracoastal... scattered inland afternoon showers & storms.

Also of concern.... another wave - possibly two - that will move off the coast of Africa next week. Either or both of these waves would likely move farther west over the Atlantic compared to what will become "Florence" but still a long ways to go on this development.

The overall pattern - less shear... a little more moisture... an MJO pulse ..... + approaching the peak of the hurricane season all adds up to keeping an eye out in the coming weeks.

The upper level analysis map below shows the persistent upper level high along the U.S. coast just south of Chesapeake Bay. Any tropical waves managing to get into - or develop over - the SW Atlantic will get steered west initially.

Note the showers & storms around Puerto Rico.... the stretched out southwest/northeast orientation is an indication of the shear out of the southwest....

Forecast model plots for the likely soon to be tropical cyclone (90-L) off the coast of Africa... the wave that moves into the Gulf of Mexico next week... & hurricane "Norman" over the E. Pacific:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The Atlantic Basin....

Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a general recent warming over a good portion of the Atlantic Basin ....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

The E. Pacific remains a busy basin. Twin storms Miriam (left in the imagery below) will turn sharply north while Norman moves west. Both will stay over open water through the weekend though Norman may be a storm for Hawaii to keep an eye on in 7-10 days or so.