Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Lorenzo headed for Europe

Oct. 2, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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*** There are no tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or any of the coastal U.S. anytime soon ***

October is the 2nd to last month of the "official" hurricane season.

We'll need to watch the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico next week through the following week for the possibility of some development.

HURRICANE LORENZO:

A large/impressive tropical wave came off the coast of Africa a week ago Sunday & was deemed t.d. #13.... then upgraded to tropical storm "Lorenzo" Mon. morning & to a hurricane early Wed. become a Cat. 4 Thu. & then to a remarkable satellite estimated Cat. 5 Sat. evening -  over the E. Atlantic. It's the farthest east & north that a Cat. 5 has been observed but realize satellite data of the quality we have now has not been around for very long.  Impressive nonetheless & only the 7th season on record with more than one Cat. 5.

Sprawling Lorenzo - tropical storm force winds extend more than 300 miles from the center is moving north/northeast & will near the Azores Tue. night/Wed.... then to near Ireland Thu. as a strong post-tropical followed by a turn to the east - with further weakening - into or near Great Britain Fri.  Wave heights of 40-50 feet are forecast to the east & southeast of Lorenzo's path!

From Dr. Phil Klotzbach - the location where each Cat. 5 developed over the Atlantic Basin (the blue dot is Lorenzo):

An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.

2019 names..... "Melissa" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global activity include typhoon "Mitag" near Taiwan then skirting China & Korea before turning sharply east - but much weaker - near Japan: