Talking the Tropics With Mike: Lots of tropical moisture into the Southeast U.S.

June 10, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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A weak upper level trough is helping to produce heavy rain across parts of the Southeast U.S. & eastern seaboard but no tropical development will occur with this feature.

There are no other areas of immediate concern for tropical development across the Atlantic Basin.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Seasonal forecasts from NOAA & Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University (updated June 4 - parenthesis indicates previous forecast):

Graph below courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach - U.S. - landfalling U.S. hurricnes by month strongly favoring August, September & October:

Atlantic Basin:

East Atlantic:

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Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

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Caribbean:

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Cox Media Group