Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure over Central Atlantic could become tropical/subtropical

Nov. 18, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

An area of storminess continues over the Central Atlantic hundreds of miles east of Puerto Rico. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development is possible as the evolving low pressure system drifts to the northwest through midweek then merges with a frontal system & accelerates northeast late in the week. Once merged with the cold front, transition to an extra-tropical low pressure system will occur by late week.

Less than two weeks are left in the Atlantic hurricane season! Two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Over the E. Pacific.... Raymond is weakening & degenerating into a remnant low. Still... some flooding, gusty winds & rip currents, rough seas/surf will occur through Sunday over the Southern & Western coasts of the Baja.