Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure slowly organizing east of Puerto Rico

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure slowly organizing east of Puerto Rico

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

A rather compact area of storminess/low pressure continues over the Central Atlantic hundreds of miles east of Puerto Rico.  Some gradual tropical or subtropical development is possible as the evolving low pressure system drifts to the northwest then north through midweek before merging with a frontal system & accelerating northeast late in the week.  Once merged with the cold front, transition to an extra-tropical low pressure system will occur over the open North Atlantic.  No impact on the U.S. & the system should stay south & east of Bermuda.

Less than two weeks are left in the Atlantic hurricane season!  Two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: