Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure to develop near Florida this week

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure to develop near Florida this week

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

A large area of disorganized showers & storms continues between the Caribbean & the west coast of Africa but shear will limit any development with little chance for the system to make it very far west.

Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall.  A strong cold front is plowing deep into & across the Atlantic with the trailing stationary front extending west across the Greater Antilles & Northern Caribbean which will be reinforced by another cold front this week.

Low pressure will develop over or near Florida by Friday.  This low will then move to the W. Atlantic east & northeast of Jacksonville while intensifying & slowly pivoting north/northeast.  Tropical development is unlikely but some subtropical characteristics - once east of Fl. - are possible.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Global tropical activity: