Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure to develop over Florida & strengthen over W. Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure to develop over Florida & strengthen over W. Atlantic

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

A large area of disorganized showers & storms continues over the Eastern Atlantic between the Caribbean & the west coast of Africa but shear will limit any development with little/no chance for the system to make it very far west.

Low pressure will develop over or near Florida by Friday.  This low will then move to the W. Atlantic east & northeast of Jacksonville while intensifying & slowly pivoting north/northeast.  Tropical development is unlikely but some subtropical characteristics - once east of Fl. - are possible.  No major impacts on the U.S. once over the Western Atlantic outside of enhanced onshore flow for the Carolina's + some coastal rain.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Global tropical activity: