• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure to develop well to the north of Jacksonville

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    July 20, 2018 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

    Watch "Surviving the Storm".....

    The Atlantic Basin is quiet.....

    An upper level trough is setting up over the Eastern U.S. & will move only very slowly through the weekend before starting to "back up" to the west during the early & middle part of next week.  This trough will help develop low pressure near the Carolina coast that will then move northward to Jersey by early Sunday.  This low might try to take on some tropical or subtropical characteristics before moving inland Sunday & dissipating.  Heavy rain & gusty winds will occur over the weekend from N. Carolina to New York City.

    The forecast map below is fro Sat. afternoon from the GFS model & shows the low near Chesapeake Bay...

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear...... 

    The Atlantic Basin....

    Full Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry in front (west) of & north of Beryl.....

    Caribbean:

    Gulf of Mexico:

    Water vapor imagery:

    Deep oceanic heat content is much more noticeable in the Caribbean/SW Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico as we head toward August.....

    Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

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