• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Monitoring the E. Pacific

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    June 25, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    The "globe" remains void of named storms in what has been a remarkably low ACE (accumulated cyclone energy" worldwide over the last couple of months.

    There is not even much in the way of cloud cover across the Gulf, Caribbean & SW Atlantic. A cold front stretches through the Central Atlantic attached to a strong ocean storm (midlatitude low) over the N. Atlantic.

    T'storms have entered the far W. Gulf of Mexico in association with an upper level disturbance & weak surface trough of low pressure but no surface development is likely.

    2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

    Atlantic Basin:

    East Atlantic:

    There may be tropical development off the coast of Mexico over the E. Pacific but any system would continue to move W/NW away from land.

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin.....

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

      

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