• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nestor nears Florida Panhandle & becomes post-tropical

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Oct. 19, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    **  "Nestor" was upgraded over the Gulf of Mexico Fri. afternoon moving to the Fl. Panhandle Saturday then into Ga. Saturday night while becoming post tropical. Bands of heavy rain & possibly isolated tornadoes along with gusty winds & rough seas & surf from near Panama City Beach to Jacksonville Beach & much of Florida northward into Ga. & the Carolina's **

    Specifically for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.:

    * on - & - off heavy rain bands & a few t'storms Saturday

    * heavy rain at times with amounts averaging 0.5 - 2", isolated spots 3"+

    * isolated tornadoes Saturday... remember WATCH: conditions favorable for severe weather; WARNING: severe weather imminent (covers a short period of time)

    * gusty winds on the order of 15-30 mph sustained but gusts of 40+ mph

    * rough seas & surf - a high rip current risk at area beaches

    * rapidly improving weather Sat. night into Sunday

    In itself, this will not be a storm that causes widespread damage but isolated tornadoes & isolated strong wind gusts will potentially cause localized damage over small areas (such as a Fri. night tornado in Polk Co. between Tampa & Orlando).

    South Fl. Water Management District:

    Nestor is moving swiftly northeast making landfall Sat. over the Central Fl. Panhandle not too far from Panama City then moving inland through Georgia into Sat. night. This will be a fast mover which will keep rainfall amounts lower - but still locally heavy. Virtually all of the heavy rain & wind (convection) remains over the northern & especially eastern portion of the circulation. The system will continue to be hampered by strong shear out of the west/southwest at more than 30-40 mph maintaining all the "weather" over the eastern part of the circulation.

    Whether purely tropical vs. subtropical or post tropical, the impacts will be the same & very typical of landfalling tropical cyclones. Damage &/or power outages do not look to be significant or widespread for any affected areas as heavy rain, wind & any storm surge (Big Bend) will be short-lived as a weakening Nestor speeds to the east/northeast. 

    Dry air is wrapping in from the west which will allow for rapid clearing as the center of Nestor marches steadily northeast then east/northeast.

    Anyone living in - or traveling through - Florida.... the I-10 corridor from Pensacola to Jacksonville north through Ga. through Saturday & as far north as parts of the Carolina's into Sunday morning should expect impacts from "Nestor".

    A narrow cone means a high confidence track forecast:

    A storm surge WARNING is in effect for the Big Bend of Fl. (as much as 3-5+ feet of surge + wave action) to as far south as just north of Tampa in addition to a tropical storm WARNING....

    Water vapor image shows dry air invading from the west.  Sure

    Rainfall forecast:

     

     

    Atlantic dust:

    2019 names..... "Olga" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

     

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

    While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    Global tropical activity:

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