Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nestor remnants over the Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nestor remnants over the Atlantic

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Nestor's remnants moved offshore Sunday & will now continue eastward with little or no re-generation.

A powerful cluster of thunderstorms erupted Sunday night over the far Western Gulf in association with an upper level trough & surface cold front.  No tropical development is expected.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Olga" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Global tropical activity.... tropical storm "Neoguri" will move near Tokyo through Monday night with heavy rain & gusty winds while much more powerful typhoon "Bualoi" will recurve this week to the east of Japan.