• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nestor remnants over the Atlantic

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Oct. 21, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    Nestor's remnants moved offshore Sunday & will now continue eastward with little or no re-generation.

    A powerful cluster of thunderstorms erupted Sunday night over the far Western Gulf in association with an upper level trough & surface cold front.  No tropical development is expected.

     

     

    Atlantic dust:

    2019 names..... "Olga" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

     

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

    While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    Global tropical activity.... tropical storm "Neoguri" will move near Tokyo through Monday night with heavy rain & gusty winds while much more powerful typhoon "Bualoi" will recurve this week to the east of Japan.

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