Watch "Surviving the Storm".....
A few tropical waves are marching west across the Atlantic as is typical this time of year but little or no development expected with these waves into the upcoming week.
A nontropical wave over the N. Atlantic is essentially stationary & will begin to move northeast in the coming days over the open Atlantic. A transition to subtropical or tropical is possible before moving back over cooler water but this system will stay far to the east of Bermuda & any part of the east coast of the U.S.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......
The Atlantic Basin....
Gulf of Mexico:
Water vapor imagery:
Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....
Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
The Pacific is very active.... hurricane "Hector" continues to move slightly north of due west taking a position just south of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of the week. A bend more toward the west by midweek should save the Islands any truly significant impacts. Ileana is south & west of Acapulco & should stay west of the coast but will be close enough to potentially bring some tropical storm force winds + heavy rain bands & rough seas/surf through Wed./Thu. In-between the two is tropical cyclone "John" which is expected to stay over open water south & southwest of the Baja of California.
Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of "upward motion" (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin. This pattern often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as is occurring now over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of named storm or two popping over the Atlantic by mid month.
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