• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Old front remains from W. Atlantic to Gulf of Mexico

    By: Michael Buresh


    June 15, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    There were no global tropical cyclones from the 2nd week of May until the 2nd week of June - not very common.  There is now a cyclone over the Northern Arabian Sea.

    First - for the Atlantic Basin - a stalled frontal boundary remains across the W. Atlantic across Fl. into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Decaying fronts into the subtropics & tropics can sometimes help lead to the development of surface low pressure.... & clusters of showers & t'storms are along this front. But no significant low pressure is expected to develop.  Otherwise the Atlantic Basin is quiet....

    2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

    Graph below courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach - U.S. - landfalling U.S. hurricnes by month strongly favoring August, September & October:

    Atlantic Basin:

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin.....

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:



    In the Arabian Sea... cyclone "Vayu" has formed & will have some impact the extreme west coast of India. Tropical cyclones this far north in the Arabian Sea are relatively rare.  The cyclone is battling shear & its own very slow movement (upwelling) as Vayu stays just off the coast of India.  Powerful tropical cyclones are much more common to the east (Bay of Bengal, for example) & south in this part of the world.

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