Talking the Tropics With Mike: Pacific is the active basin

Atlantic remains quiet

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Pacific is the active basin

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August is often the beginning of the more active part of the Atlantic hurricane season. The third named storm is usually "on the map" by Aug. 13... the 4th by Aug. 23 & the 5th by Aug. 31 (43 years of data).  Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University & NOAA have now updated their seasonal forecasts & increased the numbers slightly.  Given what looks to be a very quiet Atlantic for at least the next couple weeks, the implication is an active Sept./Oct.  Ultimately, of course, the measuring stick in most folk's minds will be whether or not a storm makes landfall & how intense the damage is.  No way to know such right now.  In any case - always be prepared!

ATLANTIC BASIN:

There are weak tropical waves from the Caribbean to Africa but nothing that looks to be developing anytime soon.

Meanwhile... the Northwest Pacific is active with typhoon - "Lekima" - hitting China & typhoon Krosa potentially having some impact on Japan next week.  The East Pacific will become more active over the next 1 - 2 weeks.

An examination of dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic shows a pretty heavy area of dust/dry air over the Eastern & Central Atlantic extending into the Eastern Caribbean.  While such dry air can inhibit tropical development initially, once the wave is farther west & out of the dust "cloud" - IF all other conditions are equal - organization/strengthening can occur.  The 2005 hurricane season stands out as a "dusty" Eastern Atlantic but disturbances simply waited to get out of the dust - further to the west - to develop & then "make history".

2019 names..... "Chantal" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

East Atlantic:

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p>Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. & N. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

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Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

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Surface analysis of the Gulf:

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Caribbean:

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