Talking the Tropics With Mike: Peak of the hurricane season

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It's the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season......

Phil Klotzbach - September landfalling hurricanes:

The Atlantic Basin remains pretty active but Gabrielle is the only named storm. Gabrielle is over the open N. Atlantic & no threat to land as the system soon becomes extratropical.

An active tropical wave over the East Atlantic has long term potential with the big question mark. It looks like the wave will remain rather weak which would allow the trade winds to steer a more shallow disturbance more west (vs. north). Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & "cipher". Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET - are bouncing around on any development not to mention the location.

A wave closer to home - near the SE Bahamas & north of Hispaniola - will be moving west/northwest through the upcoming weekend but does not appear to be in a favorable area for much development. Still... the wave should bring an increase in showers & t'storms by Fri. into the weekend to Florida before the wave proceeds into the Gulf of Mexico where conditions look more favorable for some possible development. This wave will also bring some heavy rain to the Bahamas the next few days.

In the overall bigger picture.... the global forecast models show a general lowering of pressures across the subtropics through mid to late Sept. which often correlates to tropical development. No surprise at the peak of the hurricane season.

Forecast models continue to send mixed messages/signals regarding '94-L' - mainly on whether or not the wave can survive generally hostile conditions over the next week or so. Still early so plenty of time to watch & track.

Gabrielle:

An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season.

2019 names..... "Humberto" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg. Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: