Talking the Tropics With Mike: Powerful hurricane Barbara over the East Pacific

July 2, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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We made it through the month of June without a named storm over the Atlantic Basin - something that happens about every other year.  The average date for the first storm of the Atlantic season is not until July 9th with typical tracks into the Gulf of Mexico or Western Atlantic.

Meanwhile... the East Pacific continues to be the place to watch for now as Barbara becomes a "major" hurricane.  Otherwise the tropics are quiet globally overall.

A look at the velocity potential anomalies does show "upward motion" (green lines) over the Central/Eastern Pacific which has likely aided the development of Alvin & now Barbara.  This upward motion will likely "ooze" into the Atlantic Basin for parts of July & could spark the first development of the Atlantic season (other than brief Andrea in May) by mid month or so.  Something to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Atlantic Basin:

0

East Atlantic:

1

There is a disturbance over the far Eastern Atlantic, but it's early in the season for development so deep over the tropics.

There may be tropical development off the coast of Mexico over the E. Pacific but any system would continue to move W/NW away from land.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

In the E. Pacific.... Barbara will be a hurricane over the E. Pacific but staying far from any major land areas as the storm steadily moves west/northwest.

Cox Media Group