Talking the Tropics With Mike: Powerful Lorenzo over the Central/Easter Atlantic; Narda near Mexico

Sept. 29, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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*** There are no tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or any of the coastal U.S. anytime soon. Rip currents will increase again at area beaches along with rough seas & surf due to distant tropical cyclones &/or persistent generally onshore flow.

HURRICANE LORENZO:

A large/impressive tropical wave came off the coast of Africa Sunday & was deemed t.d. #13.... then upgraded to tropical storm "Lorenzo" Mon. morning & to a hurricane early Wed. become a Cat. 4 Thu. & then to a remarkable satellite estimated Cat. 5 Sat. evening -  over the E. Atlantic. It's the farthest east & north that a Cat. 5 has been observed but realize satellite data of the quality we have now has not been around for very long.

Sprawling Lorenzo - tropical storm force winds extend more than 250 miles from the center - will be an early turn to the north staying over the Eastern & Central Atlantic & has likely peaked in intensity. Lorenzo will gradually weaken over the next few days while moving near the Azores.... then to near Ireland & possibly the United Kingdom & nearby areas - as a strong post-tropical ocean storm late in the week.  However, recent model trends have been a little more west.

From Dr. Phil Klotzbach - the location where each Cat. 5 developed over the Atlantic Basin (the blue dot is Lorenzo):

An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.

2019 names..... "Melissa" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  Note the leftover upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to "mix out"):

While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

In the East Pacific.... tropical storm Narda has formed near the west coast of Mexico dropping heavy rain on coastal areas.  The storm's proximity to land should limit further development.

Global activity:

Cox Media Group