Talking the Tropics With Mike: Sebastien interacting with an upper level trough over open Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Sebastien interacting with an upper level trough over open Atlantic

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

However, tropical storm Sebastien continues over the Central Atlantic.  Sebastien is being impacted by a strong nearby upper level trough helping to create a good deal of shear as well as some dry air entrainment now.  So the tropical storm will slowly weaken as the storm turns more east possibly never truly "hooking up" with the cold front.  No impact on the U.S., & the tropical cyclone will stay well south & east of Bermuda.

Just about a week left in the Atlantic hurricane season!  Two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Tanya" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: