Talking the Tropics With Mike: Signs that Atlantic slowly becomes more active next week

Aug. 14, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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There are some signs that next week the Atlantic will start to to become a little more active.  Eye on the Western Gulf of Mexico where a tropical wave may try to do some "sneaky" development in an area that's favored this time of year.

And a tropical wave originating from Africa will approach the SW Atlantic & Bahamas by the middle of next week.  Early indications are no signficant attendant surface development, but that's a wave to at least keep an eye on.

The velocity potential anomaly map below shows rising vertical velocities (green lines) overspreading the Pacific Basin.  This should help with some tropical development in the short term over the Eastern Pacific & eventually - by late Aug. - over parts of the Atlantic Basin.  And could help get something going next week over the Western Gulf.

Forecast models have been "toying" with low pressure developing along the Gulf Coast late this week into the weekend.  But current indications are that this low pressure area would be in a marginal environment - shear, nearby dry air + proximity to land (possibly over land) - for much in the way of significant development.  There will be an uptick in heavy rain & storms over the Northern Gulf & along the Gulf Coast & I-10 corridor from Mobile to Jacksonville.

Meanwhile... the Pacific is more active but not remarkably so. Tropical storm Krosa is having some impact on Japan this week.

An examination of dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic shows an expansive area of dust/dry air over the Eastern & Central Atlantic extending into the Caribbean.  While such dry air can inhibit tropical development initially, once the wave is farther west or if the wave can stay a little south & out of the dust "cloud" - & IF all other conditions are equal - organization/strengthening can occur.  The 2005 hurricane season stands out as a "dusty" Eastern Atlantic but disturbances simply waited to get out of the dust - further to the west - to develop & then "make history".

2019 names..... "Chantal" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

It was 15 years ago - 2004 - that the Atlantic Basin suddenly came awake in what had been a quiet season so far.  An El Nino abruptly collapsed midseason.... the first named storm occurred near the Carolina coast early in Aug. followed by tropical storm Bonnie that hit the Panhandle on Aug. 12 dropping an EF-2 tornado on Jacksonville's NW side followed the next day by powerful Cat. 4 Charley in SW Fl. at Port Charlotte then Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all major hurricanes that hit Fl. with Frances & Jeanne having profound effects on Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga.

There have been some similarities in the overall global weather pattern this year compared to 1969, 1999 & 2004.  All of these years started out very slowly but became active in Aug. or Sept. ending up above avg.  A combination of the dying El Nino, quite warm ocean temps. overall, the upcoming climatological peak of the hurricane season + the timing of MJO pulses (rising vertical velocities that can aid tropical development), all adds up to a word of caution in the weeks & months ahead.

1969 - 18 named storms - few from the deep tropics & only one named storm before mid Aug.

1999 - 12 named storms with few from the deep tropics..... active along the U.S. east coast & only one named storm before mid to late Aug.

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2004 - 15 named storms with two obvious "zones" - E. Atlantic & Gulf/SW Atlantic. No named storms until the first week of Aug. after El Nino shut down.

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Atlantic Basin today:

East Atlantic:

p>Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. & N. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

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