Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strong low pressure developing NE of Jacksonville; active Pacific

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strong low pressure developing NE of Jacksonville; active Pacific

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

Low pressure is consolidating into a single stronger low pressure area northeast of Jacksonville & east of the Carolina's this weekend.  Tropical development is unlikely but some subtropical (or hybrid) characteristics are possible.  Though staying offshore, the low will produce gusty winds, rip currents, rough seas & surf & heavy rain at times for parts of coastal Florida & especially Georgia & the Carolina's.  The low will start to accelerate east/northeast by Sunday/Mon. over the open Atlantic.

Meanwhile.... a large area of storminess has emerged over the Central Atlantic hundreds of miles east of Puerto Rico.  Some gradual development is possible as the system drifts to the northwest through the next week or so.

Only two weeks are left in the Atlantic hurricane season!  Two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Over the E. Pacific.... tropical storm Raymond has formed & will impact the Southern Baja of California over the weekend but as a relatively weak system.  Still... some flooding, gusty winds & rip currents, rough seas/surf will occur through Sunday.

Global tropical activity:

Typhoon "Fengshen" will recurve over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan....