• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strong low to develop off New England... NW Pacific typhoon

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Oct. 9, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    ** There are no immediate tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or any of the coastal U.S. anytime soon... an offshore storm later this week into the weekend will produce gusty winds, beach erosion & some heavy coastal rain from the Mid Atlantic to New England **

    ..... & we'll need to watch the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico the next few weeks for the possibility of attempts at tropical development.

    Global forecast models develop "twin" low pressure systems over the Atlantic in the coming days.  One will be over the Central Atlantic which may end up giving way to the larger/stronger low to its west.

    Another area of low pressure will be developing over the Western Atlantic between the Carolina's & Bermuda. This low will remain just about stationary or meander - possibly even loop -  through the end of the week until the low is picked up by trough moving into the Northeast U.S. Some subtropical (hybrid) development is possible with this low, but the system is likely to eventually move northeast away from the U.S. in the long run.  Still... there will be rough seas & surf for parts of the Mid Atlantic & New England along with gusty winds & heavy rain close to the coast.

    Neither of these low pressure systems will have any significant impact on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.

     

     

    An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones.  It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.

    2019 names..... "Melissa" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

     

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

    While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    Global tropical activity:

    Super typhoon "Hagibis" is forecast to hit Japan by the weekend - local info. * here *.  Not as strong as the storm currently is but still significant....

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