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** There are no tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. over the next few days. However, a disturbance will need to be monitored over the Western Gulf of Mexico later this week while t.d. # 15 stays over the far Eastern Atlantic **
A strong & large wave that came of the coast of Africa has quickly become tropical depression #15. The system will turn rather sharply northward initially before bending back to the west once weaker & more shallow. #15 will not manage to get far west across the Atlantic & weakening should be rather fast by late week due to dry air, shear & cooler sea surface temps.
Generally unsettled conditions continue near Central America. Low pressure is forming near & over Central America & will move into the SW & Western Gulf of Mexico later this week where some attempts at tropical development will be possible. Depending on how this low develops, there may be impacts on the Gulf Coast late week into the weekend though it's too early to specifically define these impacts. A second area of low pressure will emerge from this "disturbed" weather over the far East Pacific & may also develop affecting the west coast of Mexico.
2019 names..... "Nestor" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg. A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:
While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Global tropical activity:
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