• Talking the Tropics With Mike: tropical depression #15 dissipates.... disturbance over SW Gulf

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Oct. 16, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    ** There are no tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. over the next few days. However, a disturbance will need to be monitored over the Western/SW Gulf of Mexico later this week into the weekend while t.d. #15 has dissipated over the far Eastern Atlantic **

    Generally unsettled conditions continue near Central America.  Low pressure is forming near & over Central America & will move into the SW & Western Gulf of Mexico later this week where some attempts at tropical development will be possible.  Depending on how this low develops, there may be impacts on the Gulf Coast late week into the weekend though it's too early to specifically define these impacts.  As of right now... it looks like low pressure - possibly a tropical storm - will come ashore over the Central Gulf Coast Sat./Sat. night anywhere from New Orleans to the Fl. Panhandle producing heavy rain & gusty winds. 

    The disturbance is part of a large area of showers & t'storms from which a second disturbance has emerged on the Pacific side bringing heavy rain & flooding to Southern Mexico.

    Rainfall forecast through the weekend shows the Gulf disturbance bringing heavy rain northeast all the way to the Gulf Coast:

     

     

    Atlantic dust:

    2019 names..... "Nestor" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

     

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

    While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    Global tropical activity:

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