Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical disturbance approaching Northeast Caribbean

Some heavy rain for Puerto Rico & nearby islands

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical disturbance approaching Northeast Caribbean

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far:

A persistent area of "disturbed" weather - a cluster of showers & t'storms with a tropical wave - 96-L - continues moving westward east of Puerto Rico.  Some gradual development is possible over the next several days though mid & upper level shear should limit overall development - typical for this time of year.  The disturbance will move more north mid to late week to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late this week into the weekend.  In fact, development may be delayed until the system is accelerating northeast out over the open Atlantic.

The band of clouds over the Eastern U.S. below is in association with an upper trough & surface cold front.  As this system consolidates & intensifies by late week, the strong upper level trough will insure that '96-L' turns north then northeast to the east of the U.S.

Forecast model spaghetti plots for Central Atlantic disturbance - '96-L' (lack of tracks because some models do not show development):

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....


Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):


Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf: