Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical storm Xavier bringing storm force winds near SW Mexico coast

Xavier soon to turn more westward

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical storm Xavier bringing storm force winds near SW Mexico coast

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

The Atlantic Basin is generally quiet though there are some stormy areas.  The Gulf of Mexico is full of t'storm activity due to a surface front that's going back north as a warm front.  No low pressure is expected to develop, however.

Other disorganized storminess is over the East Atlantic but no tropical development is expected.

The map below shows the genesis points for previous tropical cyclones in Nov. going back to 1851....

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

E. Pacific will likely again have at least one new named storm soon.....

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

0

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

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Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the Caribbean & nearby areas....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

In the East Pacific..... tropical storm Xavier has developed but will be no direct threat to land although the strongest eastern side of the circulation is bringing tropical storm force winds very near the SW Mexico coast where a tropical storm WARNING is in effect.  Xavier is expected to weaken over the next few days turning more west with time.