• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical storm Xavier off the west coast of Mexico

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Nov. 5, 2018 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

    2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far:

    The Atlantic Basin is generally quiet though there are some stormy areas.  Scattered t'storm clusters are occurring over the Gulf of Mexico due to a stalled front & the proximity of an upper level trough. This could be an area to watch in the long run for a surface low to evolve but nothing indicated at the moment.

    Other disorganized storminess is over the East Atlantic but no tropical development is expected.

    The map below shows the genesis points for previous tropical cyclones in Nov. going back to 1851....

    Atlantic Basin:

    E. Atlantic:

    E. Pacific will likely again have at least one new named storm soon.....

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

    The Atlantic Basin.....

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the Caribbean & nearby areas....

    Sea surface temp. anomalies:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    In the East Pacific..... tropical storm Xavier developed over the weekend off the coast of Mexico but is getting hammered by strong shear out of the southwest.   A tropical storm WARNING is in effect for a portion of the SW coast of Mexico where strong winds are occurring east of the center.  Xavier is expected to weaken over the next few days turning more west with time.

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