Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical wave continues through Caribbean

CSU issues updated seasonal forecast

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical wave continues through Caribbean

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August is often the beginning of the more active part of the Atlantic hurricane season. The third named storm is usually "on the map" by Aug. 13... the 4th by Aug. 23 & the 5th by Aug. 31 (43 years of data).  In other words, we're about right on schedule so far.  Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University has updated his seasonal forecast with little change since earlier this year.  If accurate, there would be 12 more named storms during the upcoming months.... 7 of which would become hurricanes, 2 "major".


A tropical wave - '96-L' - that came off the coast of Africa last week ontinues moving west/northwest across the Caribbean with convection waxing & waning.  Hostile shear is ahead & should shred the wave in the coming days.  Due to its "shallowness" (weak), the wave continues on a more westward track.  This will still could be a wave to watch in the long run once into the Western Caribbean &/or Southern Gulf if somehow the wave can survive the very strong shear (40+  mph) that's ahead through at least Thu.

Another wave is following '96-L' & has some long term potential as well.  This wave will also likely take a southern route avoiding a persistent weak trough over the Eastern U.S. that might otherwise steer a deeper system more to the north.

An examination of dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic shows a pretty heavy area of dust/dry air over the Eastern & Central Atlantic extending to the Eastern Caribbean.  While such dry air can inhibit tropical development initially, once the wave is farther west & out of the dust "cloud" - IF all other conditions are equal - organization/strengthening can occur.  The 2005 hurricane season stands out as a "dusty" Eastern Atlantic but disturbances simply waited to get out of the dust - further to the west - to develop & then "make history".

2019 names..... "Chantal" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

East Atlantic:



Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. & N. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:


Surface analysis of the Gulf: