• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical wave moves into the Caribbean

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Oct. 18, 2018 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    A low pressure area that originated over the Caribbean then moved across Central America has emerged over the far E. Pacific where development appears likely just off the coast of Mexico while moving W/NW.  There will be no impact on the Gulf of Mexico or U.S. east coast.  

    A poorly organized tropical wave - but with a cluster of t'storm activity - is moving west/northwest into the SE Caribbean.  Pretty strong shear should keep the system in check. 

    Forecast models are indicating low pressure developing mid to late next week over the Northern Gulf along a front but tropical development looks unlikely.

    E. Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

    The Atlantic Basin.....

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in the fall....

    Sea surface temp. anomalies:

    A cold front will stall across Fl. then move back & forth (north & south) into next week as upper level disturbances move west to east.  Surface low pressure may evolve later next week over the Gulf along the front but current indications are that the low will be nontropical in nature.

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

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