• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical wave over E. Caribbean

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    July 28, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    A weakening front remains stalled from the W. Atlantic across Fl. into the Gulf of Mexico.  While clusters of showers & t'storms are developing randomly, nothing organized is evident or expected.

    Of more importance.... is an African tropical wave that's moved into the Eastern Caribbean.  While convection is active, there is little organization largely due to strong shear.  The wave will move toward Florida through the end of the week with the shear + some land interaction likely inhibiting much in the way of development.  Some forecast models - particularly the European - show some organization east of Florida while the wave turns north then is kicked northeast by another upper level trough moving into the Eastern U.S.  The UKMET model, on the other hand, takes the system farther west & a little faster still as an open wave.  In any case.... it would appear the wave will not have favorable conditions for much strengthening prior to being in the vicinity of Fl. late week into the upcoming weekend.

    A pretty active wave is also coming off the coast of Africa.  Little short term development is expected but something to keep an eye on in the longer run.

    2019 names..... "Chantal" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

    A pulse of "vertical velocities" (green lines) has spread east from the Pacific into the Atlantic.  This correlates with rising air which can be favorable for tropical development IF all other things are equal.  That being said... there is quite a bit of shear over the Atlantic Basin at the moment.  But this pulse might help trigger attempts at tropical development over the Atlantic over the next week or two. 

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    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    The East Pacific is again active.  "Erick" will be south of Hawaii by late week & likely weakening after reaching hurricane strength over the next few days.  Another tropical cyclone follows - will become "Flossie" - & could be near Hawaii in 7 - 10 days or so.

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