Talking the Tropics With Mike: Upper trough to move into the Eastern U.S.

July 17, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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The Atlantic Basin has gone quiet.....

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The Atlantic Basin....

Full Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry in front (west) of & north of Beryl.....

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

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Models are "liking" the far W. Atlantic just off the U.S. coast.  This is not completely out of the question as an upper level trough dives into the Eastern U.S. & moves little at all or only very slowly.  This trough could induce cyclogenesis - the development of a surface low - near the east coast late in the week into the weekend.  Any tropical transition would be gradual, but it is something to watch.

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Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

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Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Cox Media Group