• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Oct. 22, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    A tropical wave is near the Yucatan Peninsula & will move steadily northwest emerging over the Bay of Campeche later Wed. into Thu.  From there the disturbance will turn north then northeast along a cold front diving southeast into the Western Gulf.  At this point, it looks like weak low pressure will evolve then move quickly northeast by Fri. into Sat. along the front to the Central Gulf Coast.  It does not appear that this low will have enough time to significantly develop but something to keep an eye on.

     

     

    Atlantic dust:

    2019 names..... "Olga" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

     

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    Global tropical activity.... tropical storm "Neoguri" is moving away from Japan while much more powerful typhoon "Bualoi" will recurve this week to the east of Japan.

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