• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak wave approaching Florida

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    July 22, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    A weak tropical wave, '94-L' - that came off the coast Africa last week - is moving through the Bahamas.  Right now the wave is evident by a weak wind shift & some disorganized showers & t'storms.  While some slight development (weak surface low pressure) is possible, moderate shear / marginal environmental conditions & proximity to land should limit overall development.  A turn toward the north can be expected through midweek then a turn more northeast by late week while moving away from Fl. & the U.S. east coast.  Any impact for Jacksonville & much of Fl. & SE Ga. will be an enhancement of showers & t'storms Tue. afternoon through early Wed.

    Model plots for wave '94-L':

    Radar imagery courtesy South Florida Water Management District:

    This week's rainfall forecast:

    2019 names..... "Chantal" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

    Atlantic Basin:

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

     

    The Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

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