Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weekend low pressure east of Florida

Nov. 14, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

Disorganized low pressure will develop over or near Florida by Friday into Saturday. A pair of lows will consolidate & move over the W. Atlantic east & northeast of Jacksonville while intensifying & slowly pivoting north/northeast. Tropical development is unlikely but some subtropical characteristics - once east of Fl. - are possible. Though staying offshore, the low will produce gusty winds, rip currents, rough seas & surf & heavy rain at times for parts of coastal Florida & especially Georgia & the Carolina's.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season. Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: