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"Buresh Blog": An overall review of "Matthew" - Oct. 18th

by: Michael Buresh Updated:

Oct. 18, 2016 - I will be offering up amendments to this post &/or adding new ones as information becomes available, but here’s just a quick synopsis & personal recall regarding hurricane “Matthew” which will likely go down as one of the most expensive -- when adjusted for inflation -- storms ever to hit Northeast Florida.  Our local area will come back bigger, stronger & better than ever.... & more united.  I look forward to being a part of it.

Other info. & pics are on my Twitter acc't + Facebook fan page.

Our Jacksonville N.W.S. -- which did excellent work! -- has posted an early summary of some of the data.  The highest storm surge at least approached 8 feet for parts of St. Johns & Flagler Co.... 2-5 feet for parts of Duval Co... & 4-6 feet, possibly higher in spots for Nassau Co. & Camden & Glynn Co. in Ga.  Peak wind gusts were at least between 80 & 90 mph.  Rainfall averaged 5-10”, locally near 12” NOT including all the rain in the days leading up to “Matthew”.  Weekly (due to a strong onshore / 'Nor'easter' event) rainfall totals were as high as 15-20” across parts of Duval/St. Johns & Clay Co.

So.... where to begin??!!

THE WAVE:

“It” all began Sept. 22nd in “Talking the Tropics With Mike” (TTTWM) as an active tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa though I talked about this pattern & wave in the days leading up to the 22nd.  One of my concerns was that models -- particularly the GFS -- were too early in recurving tropical cyclones to the east this season.  No way to know why, but my guess is the models were lowering pressures too much to the east of the cyclones.

MODELS:

I typed multiple times in “TTWM” .... in the days leading up to “Matthew”.... in previous posts this season.... &, in fact, during my career.... forecast models are “just models”.  Most of the model guidance I write about that follows are simply based on the help -- or lack thereof -- for forecasting "Matthew" impacts in my local area - Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga.  A caveat regarding this portion of my post: I have not had a chance to carefully diagnose all the model data & much of what follows is memory only.  But you can go back through my “TTWM” to check what I’m talking about here.  In my humble opinion, the GFS “wins” the “Matthew” battle.  The GFS was good on genesis & superb on track as a whole.  Yes - the GFS was too fast in movement but it was one of the few global models that hugged the Fl. east coast which -- as we all know now -- was the right track.  I only briefly & rather casually used the HWRF & GFDL due to their poor track records as a whole though the GFDL in particular did catch on in time.  It wasn't needed though, in my opinion, to make a good forecast.

The European model:

had some real serious trouble with genesis then had a tendency to be way too far east..... at one point taking -- for successive model runs -- “Matthew” well east of the Bahamas & never impacting Florida let alone the east coast of the U.S.  The model was, however, better on the slower solution - no doubt.  

  Image below is from late Mon., the 3rd valid for 5pm Fri.  For this particular model run (12Z), the GFS was best on timing but a little too far east.... European was too slow & too far south.

The UKMET:

was my “safety blanket” as a forecaster as the model has generally been pretty strong this season & did well with “Hermine”.  But still the UKMET had a tendency to jump around east of Fl. but was a nice compromise between the more west/faster GFS & the slower/more east European.  Ultimately... the UKMET was still too far east when it mattered.

FSU Super Ensemble: pretty good job overall but all the general model tweaks have made it difficult for this model -- still was very helpful.

CANADIAN - too far east as a whole

NAM - Not a global model but some tweaks have made to this mesoscale model in hopes of better resolving tropical systems.  Didn’t work.

INTENSITY: All the models had a wide range of intensity problems which wasn’t the end of the world as one had to look at what was ahead in trying to determine intensity.  It was very interesting that “Matthew” intensified greatly despite the presence of strong shear.  It would appear that the juxtaposition of the core east of the strongest shear helped “Matthew” intensify.  In addition, there was a persistent weak upper level trough of low pressure over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico that might have helped to ventilate “Matthew” in the upper levels in particular leading to poleward outflow & thereby a favorable environment for not only intensification but maintenance of a strong tropical cyclone.

WEST PACIFIC TELECONNECTION: I picked up on -- & pointed out multiple times in “TTWM” -- the active W. Pacific with 2 typhoons in particular that might give us a hint that we should predict a farther west move in the short term & a cyclone closer to the U.S. east coast.  This proved very helpful in the overall grand scheme of movement close to the coast then into the Carolina’s.

So .... dates to remember....

  “Matthew” was a tropical wave -- a classic Cape Verde system -- that moved off the coast of Africa Sept. 22nd.

SEPT. 28: Advisories on tropical storm “Matthew” initiated by the NHC @ 11am EDT.

SEPT. 29: “Matthew” upgraded to a hurricane @ 2pm EDT

SEPT. 30: “Matthew” becomes a “major” Cat. 3 hurricane with the  11am EDT advisory

SEPT. 30: Becomes a Cat. 5 hurricane w/ 11pm advisory - first Cat. 5 hurricane over the Atlantic Basin since “Felix”, 2007.

-- OCT. 4th, 7am - text to my boss during a conversation regarding the storm: “I will say this could end up a once in a generation type storm for local area depending on exact track & intensity”.

-- OCT. 4th/early morning: I sent a text to Rich Jones, News Director/WOKV: “I’m honing in on very near Cape Canaveral to Savannah for eye - preliminary on my part but leaning there”..... @ 4:12pm I sent a text to Rich Jones: “Looking like WOKV could be a critical communication tool Fri.!”... followed up with: “You guys could seriously end up being a lifeline... not intending to sound too over the top”. 

OCT. 4:  Early morning Cat. 4 landfall on the extreme SW coast of Haiti early in the morning.  This was the first landfalling Cat. 4 or stronger hurricane on Haiti since “Cleo” in 1964.  A second landfall occurred during the evening on the eastern tip of Cuba.

OCT. 5: Cat. 3 increasing to Cat. 4 “Matthew” moves over the SW Bahamas - the 2nd major hurricane to hammer parts of the Bahamas within just 1 year.

OCT. 7:  Western eyewall of “Matthew” brushes Cape Canaveral in the early morning with wind gusts well above 100 mph.

OCT. 7: Eye of “Matthew” reaches Jacksonville latitude as Cat. 3 at approximately 6pm EDT 40 miles east of Jax Beach.

OCT. 8: First official U.S. landfall of “Matthew” as Cat. 1 10 -- 11am between Charleston, SC & Myrtle Beach near McClellanville, SC.

OCT. 9: “Matthew” is declared post-tropical at 5am a little SE of Cape Hatteras, NC.... last official advisory by the NHC at 5pm

A BULLET POINT SUMMARY/RECOLLECTION AS I REMEMBER IT

-- On Wed., Sept. 28th, I sent an email to my boss informing him that the 2 days I had scheduled “off” for Mon./Tue. Oct. 3/4 would be wiped from the calendar while the First Alert Weather Center tracks “Matthew”. 

-- I forced myself to try to “stock up” on sleep on the weekend of Oct. 1/2.  This proved fortuitous from a sports standpoint :) since it was a heck of a college football day Sat... the Ryder’s Cup both days... & the Jags victory in London Sun.... Vin Scully's last call... Arnold Palmer memorials.... 

-- during this time I was in nearly constant contact w/ First Alert meteorologists - Arielle, Garrett & Erin.  I must say -- & so appreciate -- that all three were on point, focused, tireless, imaginative, hard working, observant & engaged before/during & after Matthew.  The entire Action News newsroom worked at a fever pitch, nonstop & selflessly.  The same can be said for radio - News 1-0-4-5 WOKV.

-- The forecast for “Matthew” was exceedingly difficult early in the week (starting w/ Mon., the 3rd, but it became increasingly apparent that Fl. was in line for potentially major impacts

-- There were many consultations which I will not publicly divulge, but it is safe to say I gave forecasts to a wide range of individuals, corporations, businesses & families to which I can only hope that they found of at least some value.

-- I told my wife -- for the first time since “Fay” in 2008 & “Frances”/”Jeanne” in ’04 -- that we need to make some preparations for a pretty big tropical storm/hurricane.  She was huge in getting me through the physically & mentally demanding hours.

-- I received a number of voice mails, emails & other communications that offered a tremendous amount of support for which I’ll always be grateful.

-- many folks checked in on my family at home while I worked.

-- Governor Scott was definitely out in front of the storm & was well organized & visible -- before, during & after Matthew.  2016 has been a memorable year for Florida (Zika, Orlando shooting, Hermine & Matthew), & I believe -- politics aside -- Gov. Scott has been a very strong leader.

-- St. Johns Co. led the charge locally & gets points for organization & communication both before & after “Matthew”.

-- Jacksonville got going in time.  But JEA & city officials fell prey to a self-imposed deadline of restoring electricity to Jax within 72 hours (Mon. night) of Matthew.  When I first heard this while taking part in a live panel discussion at WOKV early Mon. (the 10th), I was very surprised.  When I asked Mayor Curry live about the clean-up process & that the ’04 debris removal after tropical storms “Frances” & “Jeanne” took 6 months to complete, the mayor was obviously irritated defending how he would “do whatever necessary to get the city cleaned up”.  But my point was -- & he had the opportunity to take the opening -- that residents should be prepared for electricity to be restored + completion of the cleanup to take some time.  And it will. 

-- I want to emphasize the yeoman work by utility companies & first responders all across the area.

-- I thought the beaches -- as a whole -- did a great job before & during Matthew & especially re-entry.  One did not have to park in the line before the bridges before noon to get in.  Within a half hour, traffic was moving efficiently & smoothly.  It’s like on an airplane.  When the jet comes to a stop at the jetbridge, people immediately stand up & start to force their way into the isle & pushing to get out.  You’re not going to go anywhere nor will you get there any faster.

-- I’ve often been asked how many hours I worked during “Matthew”.  I took only 1 day “off” from Sept. 26th through Oct. 14th.  My wife & I figured I put in roughly 100 hours the week of “Matthew” - that’s just Mon. - Fri.  I did mange to get home each night but only for about 3 hours Wed. & Thu. night right before Matthew’s closest approach on Fri. (7th).  But I think that bit of time home was pivotal in being able to try to stay sharp while on the air - t.v./digital & radio.  I managed a couple of hours of solid sleep.... I showered & shaved... & my wife fixed me a good breakfast. A recipe for staying alert.

-- I am unhappy with having not been able to answer all the phone calls & emails that I received before & during the storm.  I did, however, answer all of them by Sat., Oct. 15th.

-- There was a lot of pressure from many different angles when it comes to forecasting “Matthew”.  Realize I have a tendency to put a lot of pressure on myself anyway when dealing with my job.  First.... there was my family & whether or not they would be safe.  My wife & I decided they would be fine given my forecast(!).  Then there was a big decision by our corporate office on whether or not the building housing our studio could withstand the storm’s winds & whether or not CBS47/Fox30 should evacuate + send a crew of at least 5 employees to a sister station.  Again -- based on my wind forecast -- everyone stayed put.  Whew!  There were several other companies & businesses - private & public -- for which I provided forecasts “under the gun”.

-- WOKV radio & some of the Cox music stations became a “lifeline” for many once the power went out.  This was a great way for us to stay in touch with our viewers though we did constantly streamline our coverage at ActionNewsJax.com as well.

-- The days after “Matthew” did not slow down much.  I did live broadcasts from Jax Beach Sat.... shut down briefly Sunday... only to go live in a panel discussion Mon. at 8am on WOKV... I again broadcast live from Jax Beach in the afternoon... followed by my “normal” work schedule Tue. - Fri. which included an exclusive interview Fri. afternoon w/ the NHC director, Rick Knabb who was conducting an independent survey along our coast after Matthew.

-- I did never -- not once! -- said “hunker down” :) 

-- I finally managed some true down time with my family the following weekend :) [15/16th].

FORECAST MEMORIES THAT WILL STAND OUT FOR ME:

-- the “fork” in the road that was the Central/Eastern Caribbean.  This was where I employed the typhoon teleconnection + the overall seasonal model bias for being to quick to move east.  This worked pretty well.

-- my forecast early Tue./4th was for a move very near Cape Canaveral/Melbourne then to near Savannah.  Key to this forecast was that the local area would be on the WEST side of Matthew but the eye not terribly far offshore.

-- Garrett pointed out to me Wed. (5th) evening the difference between the storm surge slosh model (model surge forecast based on a worst case scenario at high tide given the current model forecast) & the NHC inundation forecast which showed far less surge.  After talking with the Jax N.W.S., we learned that the inundation forecast seemed to be more accurate at under 48 hours for verification.  This caused us -- First Alert Weather Center -- to increase our surge forecast for the 10 & 11pm newscasts.

-- the inundation forecast “caught up” by early Thu. & was below -- but closer -- to the slosh model indicating 4’+ of storm surge up & down much of the Fl./Ga. coast.  At most locals this would easily exceed the surge from “Floyd” in 1999.... in some cases more than the surge with “Dora” in 1964.... only to have been exceeded by the hurricane of 1898 (a Cat. 4 direct hit from the east). I made the decision to broadcast this possibility on WOKV radio live @7:35, 8:05 & 8:35am.  After the early morning model runs came in (between 11am & noon)... the surge was forecast to be even higher.  I made a decision to go into an indepth discussion of this possibility on CBS47 & Fox30 at about 12:30pm Thu. trying to carefully explain it was a “worst case scenario at high tide given the current model forecast for the eye of Matthew".  In comparison, the First Alert Forecast was for an eye a little farther to the east -- between 50 & 100 miles -- so we cut our official surge forecast for the county by county forecasts.  In the end, this surge forecast proved to be fairly close -- & valuable -- in many spots.  The surge forecast wasn't perfect but proved very valuable.

-- the First Alert Storm Tracker driving through storm surge that was rolling through St. Augustine & Vilano Beach near 11am Fri., the 7th is something that will forever be etched in my mind.

-- my wife’s text that our house lost power at 1pm.... & later -- that we had some wind-forced rain coming in under our front door.

-- the video early in the afternoon Fri. showing storm surge flowing through some of the streets of Jax Beach.

-- confirmation Fri. afternoon that the storm surge at Mayport & Fernandina Beach was greater than the surge associated with “Dora”/1964 & that all surge values up & down the coast were greater than “Floyd” in 1999.

-- the very first video from any media along A1A & damaged property Fri. night near 11pm.

-- the aerials from our Action News helicopter Sat. morning

-- walking on Jax Beach Sat. afternoon while doing live reports for our extended t.v. coverage

-- getting home about 5:30pm Sat.... showering.... & staying home with my family for the first time in many days.

The USGS has also released before & after photos from "Matthew".....

Flagler Beach:

Vilano Beach:

New inlet near Matanzas River, St. Johns Co.:

From our Jax N.W.S. (preliminary):

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT...HURRICANE MATTHEW...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2016

NOTE: THE DATA SHOWN HERE ARE PRELIMINARY....AND SUBJECT TO UPDATES
AND CORRECTIONS AS APPROPRIATE.

THIS REPORT INCLUDES EVENTS OCCURRING WHEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS
WERE IN EFFECT...OR WHEN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW

COUNTIES INCLUDED...PUTNAM...NASSAU...ST JOHNS...MARION...DUVAL...
FLAGLER...ALACHUA...BACON...GLYNN

OCT 13...UPDATED...

OCT 20...UPDATED FOR...METAR OBSERVATIONS, STORM SURGE, AND
CORRECTION IN MARINE OBSERVATIONS.

OCT 24...UPDATED FOR...NWS STORM TIDE SURVEY INFORMATION HAS BEEN
ADDED. PLEASE NOTE THE PROVISIONS ON THAT DATA IN THE STORM
TIDE-SURGE REMARKS.

OCT 27...ADDED STORM TIDE HEIGHTS ABOVE MHHW...AGL ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...FOR WATER MARKS SURVEYED TODAY. WATER MARKS WERE
AT THE DOCKS FOR THE FORT MATANZAS NATIONAL MONUMENT...NM...AND ON
RATTLESNAKE ISLAND AND THE FORT ITSELF. ALL WERE VERY CONSISTENT
ACROSS THE FORT MATANZAS NM FROM THE OCEANFRONT TO THE EAST ICWW
DOCK AND ON RATTLESNAKE ISLAND AND THE FORT DOCKS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE ICWW. THANKS GO OUT TO THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE FOR
FACILITATING THE SURVEY. BASED ON NEW INFORMATION THE WATER LEVEL AT
TREASURE BEACH AND THE MATANZAS INLET RESTURANT AREA HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO 7 FEET MHHW. IT IS POSSIBLE A LATER SURVEY COULD FIND
HIGHER WATER VALUES BUT WE BELIEVE THESE TO BE WITHIN A FOOT OF
ACCURACY AT THIS TIME.

OCT 31...UPDATED AND INCREASED PALM COAST ICWW STORM TIDE FOR
SECTION C FROM 5.0 TO 5.5 FEET ABOVE MHHW. THIS IS BASED ON NEW
INFORMATION PROVIDED BY FLAGLER COUNTY E.M.A. AND A RESIDENT.

A. LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE/MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AND PEAK GUSTS
---------------------------------------------------------------------
METAR OBSERVATIONS...
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 10 METERS AND WIND AVERAGING IS 2 MINUTES
---------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION  ID    MIN    DATE/     MAX      DATE/     PEAK    DATE/
LAT  LON        PRES   TIME      SUST     TIME      GUST    TIME
DEG DECIMAL     (MB)   (UTC)     (KT)     (UTC)     (KT)    (UTC)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KJAX-JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FL
30.49 -81.69    989.8 07/2156   360/039  07/1920   010/056 07/1919

KCRG-CRAIG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT FL
30.33 -81.52    986.1 07/2053   360/041  07/2006   020/060 07/1937

KNIP-JACKSONVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION FL
30.24 -81.68    988.5 07/2053   330/042  07/1909   330/059 07/1958

KVQQ-CECIL FIELD AIRPORT FL
30.22 -81.88   9999.0 /       I 310/032  07/2215   310/048 08/0215

KSGJ-SAINT AUGUSTINE AIRPORT FL
29.97 -81.33    982.1 07/1858   010/044  07/1721   360/059 07/1818

KVVG-THE VILLAGES FL
28.96 -81.97   9999.0 /       I 200/026  07/1815   200/035 07/1815

KOCF-OCALA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FL
29.18 -82.22    997.6 07/1850   330/020  07/1650   330/034 07/1550

K42J-KEYSTONE HEIGHTS FL
29.85 -82.05    999.3 07/1535   360/024  07/1535   300/036 08/0315

KGNV-GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT FL
29.68 -82.27    996.5 07/1953   330/029  07/1917   330/042 07/1917

KLCQ-LAKE CITY FL
30.18 -82.58    999.3 07/2135   340/024  07/2015   340/036 07/2035

KAYS-WAYCROSS GA
31.25 -82.40    998.1 08/0555   360/027  08/0455   350/039 08/0355

KAMG-BACON COUNTY AIRPORT GA
31.54 -82.50    998.8 08/0653   350/024  08/0210   340/036 08/0407

KJES-JESUP GA
31.55 -81.88    993.0 08/0450   350/029  08/0335   020/050 08/0015

KBQK-BRUNSWICK/GLYNCO AIPORT GA
31.15 -81.47    986.0 08/0535   030/028  07/2015   310/047 08/0335

KFHB-FERNANDINA BEACH FL
30.61 -81.46    984.6 07/2235   310/038  08/0155   300/052 08/0235

REMARKS: INCOMPLETE DATA. OBSERVATION DROPPED OUT AT 08/0450Z. DID
NOT INCLUDE KNRB-MAYPORT DUE TO INCOMPLETE OBSERVATIONS.


NON-METAR OBSERVATIONS...
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN
MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN
---------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION  ID    MIN    DATE/     MAX      DATE/     PEAK    DATE/
LAT  LON        PRES   TIME      SUST     TIME      GUST    TIME
DEG DECIMAL     (MB)   (UTC)     (KT)     (UTC)     (KT)    (UTC)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
XJAX - WEATHERFLOW JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER
30.29 -81.39    983.6 07/2105   073/053  07/1735   073/066 07/1735
                                 12/02

XHUP - HUGUENOT PARK
30.41 -81.41    981.9 07/2143   015/051  07/1923   035/069 07/1853
                                 12/02

XJAK - BUCK ISLAND
30.39 -81.48    979.4 07/2048   010/051  07/1943   000/071 07/2008
                                 10/02

XHSE - WEATHERFLOW CRESCENT BEACH SUMMERHOUSE
29.71 -81.23    977.6 07/1815   355/049  07/1725   009/065 07/1645
                                 05/02

XLWS - WEATHERFLOW LEWIS ST. JOHNS
29.91 -81.33    976.9 07/1929   360/039  07/1659   001/058 07/1709
                                 15/02

E8915 - 2 WNW SILVER SPRING SHORES
29.12 -82.05                    999/999            287/049 07/1737

JONG1 - 1 WNW STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK
30.83 -82.36                    999/999            006/043 08/0301

E0808 - PALM COAST
29.57 -81.21                    999/999            355/043 07/1456

D1274 - JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS
30.29 -81.87                    999/999            241/042 08/0422

E1959 - 3 SE WELAKA
29.44 -81.63                    999/999            278/042 07/1905

AS289 - 1 SW SAN PABLO
30.27 -81.46                    999/999            035/041 07/1601

BKBF1 - 1 NNE ORANGE PARK
30.19 -81.69                    999/999            320/041 07/2236

BYXG1 - 4 SW BAXLEY
31.71 -82.39                    999/999            183/038 08/0104

D9112 - 4 NW INTERLACHEN
29.67 -81.95                    999/999            306/038 07/1529

OKEG1 - 2 W DEENWOOD
30.25 -82.40                    999/999            345/038 08/0404

BHC - BAXLEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
31.71 -82.39                    999/999            360/037 08/0315

TT331 - 11 NNW STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK
30.98 -82.40                    999/999            340/037 08/0310

C0041 - 3 S BOYS ESTATE
31.27 -81.48                    999/999            035/035 07/2222

D8234 - 1 NW FRUIT COVE
30.11 -81.64                    999/999            115/034 07/1855

C0639 - 1 SE ORTEGA
30.26 -81.70                    999/999            039/034 07/1948

C1450 - 5 WNW NEWBERRY
29.67 -82.70                    999/999            301/034 07/1930

XJEK
31.05 -81.41    983.7 07/0311   030/036  07/2216   020/056 07/2201
                                 10/02

BLIF1 - BLOUNT ISLAND COMMAND
30.39 -81.52    986.4 07/2124   345/036  07/2000   350/056 07/2012
                                 20/02

REMARKS:


B. MARINE OBSERVATIONS...
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN
MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN
---------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION  ID    MIN    DATE/     MAX      DATE/     PEAK    DATE/
LAT  LON        PRES   TIME      SUST     TIME      GUST    TIME
DEG DECIMAL     (MB)   (UTC)     (KT)     (UTC)     (KT)    (UTC)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SAUF1-CMAN STATION SAINT AUGUSTINE FL
29.86  -81.26   978.9 07/1900   004/057  07/1730   360/075 07/1728
                                   16.5

FRDF1-NOS STATION FERNANDINA BEACH FL
30.67  -81.47   987.4 07/2236   345/034  08/0318   345/051 07/2200
                                   3.8 METERS

MYPF1-NOS STATION MAYPORT FL
30.40  -81.43   985.3 07/2112   016/046  07/2006   026/065 07/1854
                                   7

GTXF1-NERR STATION GUANA TOLOMAO MATANZAS FL
29.66  -81.22   979.0 07/1845   350/041  07/1630   999/999
                                   2.3 METERS

RED BAY PT, ST JOHNS RIVER
29.97  -81.63   986.9 07/2012   322/044  07/1824   327/060 07/1918


REMARKS:


C. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1200 UTC OCT 06 UNTIL 1200 UTC OCT 08
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CITY/TOWN                    COUNTY               ID         RAINFALL
LAT LON                                                       (IN)
DEG DECIMAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2 WSW PICOLATA               CLAY                FL-CY-19     10.30
29.90  -81.63

2 SSW COUNTRY CLUB ESTAT     GLYNN               GA-BR        10.29
31.18  -81.48

3 NNW BAKERSVILLE            ST. JOHNS           FL-SJ-16      9.97
29.94  -81.51

4 WNW BAYARD                 DUVAL               FL-DV-51      9.63
30.17  -81.57

5 ESE THALMANN               GLYNN               STRG1         9.57
31.26  -81.61

1 SSE ARLINGTON              DUVAL               FL-DV-28      9.55
30.31  -81.60

11.90 N JACKSONVILLE         DUVAL               FL-DV-37      9.39
32.89  -81.62

3 NNE OCEANWAY               DUVAL               FL-DV-37      9.39
30.50  -81.62

4 WSW SWITZERLAND            CLAY                FL-CY-37      9.29
30.06  -81.71

1 S JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS     DUVAL               FL-DV-42      8.15
30.23  -81.79

1 S JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS     DUVAL               FL-DV-42      8.15
30.24  -81.79

1 W BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK      CLAY                FL-CY-8       8.05
30.18  -81.75

2 W SWITZERLAND              CLAY                FL-CY-1       7.91
30.08  -81.70

3 W SWITZERLAND              CLAY                FL-CY-1       7.91
30.07  -81.69

2 NW SAN PABLO               DUVAL               FL-DV-32      7.89
30.31  -81.47

2 WNW SAN PABLO              DUVAL               FL-DV-32      7.89
30.31  -81.46

2 S DOCTORS INLET            CLAY                FL-CY-4       7.79
30.08  -81.76

2 NNW ORTEGA                 DUVAL               FL-DV-34      7.55
30.29  -81.72

1 N LAKESIDE                 CLAY                FL-CY-25      7.54
30.14  -81.77

1 N LAKESIDE                 CLAY                FL-CY-25      7.54
30.14  -81.77

2.10 SSW ST. AUGUSTINE S     ST. JOHNS           FL-SJ-4       7.48
29.78  -81.32

2 ENE JACKSONVILLE HEIGH     DUVAL               FL-DV-63      7.44
30.25  -81.75

3 WNW ORANGE MILLS           PUTNAM              FL-PT-8       7.22
29.69  -81.63

CRAIG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT      DUVAL               CRG           7.19
30.34  -81.51

1 NNE ORANGE PARK            CLAY                FL-CY-10      7.07
30.17  -81.70

1 WNW ORTEGA                 DUVAL               FL-DV-3       6.97
30.27  -81.73

1 SSE ORTEGA                 DUVAL               C0639         6.87
30.26  -81.70

1 SSE ORTEGA                 DUVAL               C0639         6.87
30.26  -81.70

NORMANDY                     DUVAL               FL-DV-69      6.87
30.30  -81.76

4 W NORMANDY                 DUVAL               FL-DV-33      6.83
30.30  -81.82

3 N ARLINGTON                DUVAL               FL-DV-59      6.82
30.37  -81.60

JACKSONVILLE INTL AIRPOR     DUVAL               JAX           6.75
30.48  -81.70

4 SW UNF                     DUVAL               FL-DV-79      6.70
30.22  -81.56

4 SW UNIVERSITY OF NORTH     DUVAL               FL-DV-79      6.70
30.23  -81.56

3 NE FLORAHOME               PUTNAM              FL-PT-1       6.60
29.75  -81.84

PALM COAST                   FLAGLER             E0808         6.52
29.57  -81.21

SATILLA RIVER AT US 17 A     CAMDEN              SRWG1         6.34
30.97  -81.73

2 WSW ORTEGA                 DUVAL               FL-DV-26      6.31
30.26  -81.74

4 ESE HICKOX                 BRANTLEY            GA-BY-1       6.29
31.12  -81.93

4 ESE HICKOX                 BRANTLEY            GA-BY-1       6.29
31.12  -81.93

7 N JESUP                    WAYNE               GA-WY-2       6.14
31.70  -81.89

5 NW DOCTORTOWN              WAYNE               GA-WY-2       6.14
31.70  -81.90

1 SE SAN MARCO               DUVAL               E7043         6.12
30.30  -81.64

JACKSONVILLE NAS             DUVAL               NIP           6.03
30.23  -81.68

3 WNW HASTINGS               PUTNAM              HASF1         6.01
29.76  -81.54

2 NE BUNNELL                 FLAGLER             FL-FL-25      6.00
29.48  -81.22

4 N JESUP                    WAYNE               GA-WY-6       5.76
31.66  -81.90

3 ENE MANDARIN               DUVAL               FL-DV-47      5.66
30.17  -81.58

4 ENE MANDARIN               DUVAL               FL-DV-47      5.66
30.17  -81.58

1 SE ORTEGA                  DUVAL               D7456         5.45
30.25  -81.69

6 NE LAKE GENEVA             CLAY                FL-CY-5       5.43
29.84  -81.92

7 NNE PUTNAM HALL            CLAY                FL-CY-5       5.43
29.83  -81.92

3 W BELLAIR                  CLAY                D8274         5.34
30.18  -81.81

1 SW ORTEGA                  DUVAL               E9221         5.30
30.26  -81.72

2 SE DOCTORS INLET           CLAY                FL-CY-2       5.28
30.10  -81.74

2 ENE SCREVEN                WAYNE               GA-WY-7       5.27
31.49  -81.98

4 NNW JESUP                  WAYNE               GA-WY-8       5.25
31.65  -81.90

6 NE ODUM                    WAYNE               GA-WY-4       5.20
31.73  -81.96

4 NNE MANDARIN               DUVAL               C4952         5.17
30.21  -81.60

1 SW SAN PABLO               DUVAL               AS289         5.12
30.27  -81.46

6 NNE PUTNAM HALL            CLAY                FL-CY-3       5.12
29.81  -81.93

6 NE NAHUNTA                 BRANTLEY            NAHG1         5.10
31.27  -81.92

9 NNE PUTNAM HALL            CLAY                FL-CY-14      4.98
29.86  -81.92

2 SW SAN MATEO               PUTNAM              FL-PT-7       4.72
29.59  -81.61

5 NW SALT SPRINGS            MARION              LGRF1         4.65
29.40  -81.81

3 NE LAKE GENEVA             CLAY                FL-CY-7       4.61
29.79  -81.98

4 NW MIDDLEBURG              CLAY                FL-CY-40      4.34
30.08  -81.95

8 N FLORAHOME                CLAY                FL-CY-38      4.34
29.85  -81.90

9 N FLORAHOME                CLAY                FL-CY-38      4.31
29.86  -81.90

2 W PALM COAST               FLAGLER             AT417         4.28
29.57  -81.25

1 NW FRUIT COVE              ST. JOHNS           D8234         4.25
30.11  -81.64

3 SE WELAKA                  PUTNAM              E1959         3.89
29.44  -81.63

2 N CRESCENT CITY            PUTNAM              FL-PT-21      3.85
29.46  -81.52

4 SW BAXLEY                  APPLING             BXYG1         3.66
31.71  -82.39

1 SW INTERLACHEN             PUTNAM              FL-PT-10      3.60
29.60  -81.91

2 W DEENWOOD                 WARE                OKEG1         3.35
31.25  -82.40

1 ESE PALM COAST             FLAGLER             FL-FL-21      3.18
29.56  -81.20

11 NNW STEVEN FOSTER STA     CHARLTON            TT331         3.13
30.98  -82.40

10 SW FOLKSTON               CHARLTON            TS818         3.09
30.74  -82.13

1 ESE STARKE                 BRADFORD            FL-BF-2       2.97
29.94  -82.10

BACON COUNTY AIRPORT         BACON               AMG           2.88
31.54  -82.51

2 S MACCLENNY                BAKER               FL-BK-2       2.85
30.24  -82.12

1 WNW STEVEN FOSTER STAT     CHARLTON            JONG1         2.75
30.83  -82.36

1 WSW HOG VALLEY             MARION              FL-MR-46      2.68
29.48  -81.90

4 NNE FLORAHOME              PUTNAM              FL-PT-12      2.58
29.78  -81.85

4 S GLEN ST. MARY            BAKER               FL-BK-7       2.23
30.21  -82.16

3 WNW MANOR                  WARE                GA-WR-5       2.21
31.12  -82.62

3 ESE SANDERSON              BAKER               FL-BK-5       2.14
30.24  -82.22

3 ESE SANDERSON              BAKER               FL-BK-5       2.14
30.23  -82.22

4 NW INTERLACHEN             PUTNAM              D9112         2.04
29.67  -81.95

3 SSW LAKE WEIR              MARION              FL-MR-20      2.00
28.97  -82.00

REMARKS:

D. INLAND FLOODING...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
ST JOHNS...  SPUF1 - DEEP CREEK AT SPUDS REPORTED MAJOR FLOODING
STORM TIDE OF 5.72 FEET NAVD88 AT 08/0400Z.

DUVAL...  JULF1 - JULINGTON CREEK AT OLD ST AUGUSTINE ROAD REPORTED
MAJOR FLOODING STORM TIDE OF 4.61 FEET NAVD88 AT 08/0800Z. TRJF1 -
TROUT RIVER AT LEM TURNER ROAD REPORTED MODERATE FLOODING STORM TIDE
OF 3.52 FEET NAVD88 AT 07/2015Z. DCDF1 - DUNN CREEK AT DUNN CREEK
ROAD REPORTED MODERATE FLOODING STORM TIDE OF 4.09 FEET NAVD88 AT
07/2145Z. CCJF1 - CLAPBOARD CREEK NEAR SHEFFIELD ROAD REPORTED
MODERATE FLOODING STORM TIDE OF 4.36 FEET NAVD88 AT 07/1930Z. PCUF1
- POTTSBURG CREEK AT BEACH BLVD REPORTED MODERATE FLOODING STORM
TIDE OF 4.44 FEET AT 07/2300Z. PSJF1 - POTTSBURG CREEK AT BOWDEN
ROAD REPORTED MODERATE FLOODING STORM TIDE OF 8.63 FEET NAVD88 AT
07/2315Z. ORKF1 - ORTEGA RIVER AT ARGYLE FOREST BLVD REPORTED MINOR
FLOODING STORM TIDE OF 10.63 FEET NAVD88 AT 08/0215Z.

CLAY... BCMF1 - BLACK CREEK AT MIDDLEBURG REPORTED MINOR FLOODING
STORM TIDE OF 4.03 FEET NAVD88 AT 08/0300Z. PNYF1 - SOUTH FORK AT
BLACK CREEK REPORTED MINOR FLOODING STORM TIDE OF 25.24 FEET NAVD88
AT 08/1230Z.

FLAGLER... RLGF1 - HAW CREEK ABOVE RUSSELL LANDING REPORTED MODERATE
FLOODING STORM TIDE OF 5.19 FEET NAVD88 AT 08/1700Z.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

E. MAXIMUM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
OFFICIAL TIDE GAUGES NOTED WITH LEADING G
---------------------------------------------------------------------

COUNTY           CITY/TOWN        SURGE   TIDE   DATE/   BEACH
                 OR LOCATION      (FT)    (FT)   TIME    EROSION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
PUTNAM           PALF1 - ST JOHN   3.23   3.80  08/0300  UNKNOWN

PUTNAM           DUNNS CREEK NEA   3.85   4.33  08/0130  UNKNOWN

ST JOHNS         RACY POINT        5.20   4.55  07/2236  UNKNOWN

CLAY             ST JOHNS RIVER    3.77   3.08  08/0030  UNKNOWN

DUVAL            CEDAR RIVER AT    2.68   3.30  08/0715  UNKNOWN

DUVAL            MAIN STREET BRI   2.13   2.31  08/0730  UNKNOWN

DUVAL            ACOSTA BRIDGE     2.31   2.94  08/0715  UNKNOWN

DUVAL            TROUT RIVER AT    2.27   3.52  07/2015  UNKNOWN

DUVAL            BROWARD RIVER B   3.17   4.47  07/2300  UNKNOWN

DUVAL            DAMES POINT BRI   3.67   2.80  07/2000  UNKNOWN

DUVAL            MAYPORT           4.69   3.28  07/1854  UNKNOWN

NASSAU           FERNANDINA BEAC   6.95   4.17  07/1930    MAJOR

NASSAU           ST MARYS RIVER    2.79   5.26  07/2230  UNKNOWN

CAMDEN           SEA CAMP DOCK A   3.65   7.00  07/1930  UNKNOWN

CAMDEN           SATILLA RIVER A   1.73   5.11  07/2130  UNKNOWN

GLYNN            ATLANTIC COAST    3.18   6.15  07/1900  UNKNOWN

ST JOHNS         TOLOMATO RIVER    3.61   5.55  07/1954  UNKNOWN

FLAGLER          BING`S LANDING    5.19   5.85  07/2200  UNKNOWN

FLAGLER          SURFISIDE ESTAT   0.00   2.00  07/1200     NONE

FLAGLER          BEVERLY BEACH O   0.00   7.00  07/1200    MAJOR

FLAGLER          SEA COLONY        0.00   4.50  07/1200  UNKNOWN

FLAGLER          .5 S MARINELAND   0.00   7.00  07/1200    MAJOR

FLAGLER          BINGS LANDING     0.00   5.50  07/1200     NONE

ST JOHNS         OLD A1A SUMMERH   0.00   6.00  07/1400    MAJOR

ST JOHNS         TREASURE BCH      0.00   7.00  07/1400    MAJOR

ST JOHNS         MATANZAS OCNFRN   0.00   7.00  07/1400    MAJOR

ST JOHNS         FT MATANZAS OCE   0.00   7.00  07/1400    MAJOR

ST JOHNS         ST AUG BCH        0.00   6.00  07/1400    MAJOR

FLAGLER          PALM COAST "C"    0.00   5.50  07/1200     NONE

ST JOHNS         BUTLER BCH ICWW   0.00   6.00  07/1400     NONE

ST JOHNS         DAVIS SHORES BA   0.00   5.00  07/1400     NONE

ST JOHNS         CONCH HOUSE       0.00   3.00  07/1400     NONE

ST JOHNS         ST AUGUSTINE BA   0.00   5.00  07/1500     NONE

ST JOHNS         CASTILLO S.M.     0.00   4.00  07/1500     NONE

ST JOHNS         LINCOLNVILLE      0.00   5.00  07/1400     NONE

ST JOHNS         VILANO BCH        0.00   6.00  07/1500    MAJOR

ST JOHNS         GUANA RESEARCH    0.00   4.50  07/1600    MAJOR

DUVAL            OAK LANDING/JTB   0.00   3.00  07/1800     NONE

DUVAL            LIFESAVING STN    0.00   5.00  07/1700    MAJOR

DUVAL            BROWNS CREEK      0.00   2.00  07/1800     NONE

NASSAU           FERN HBR MARINA   0.00   3.00  07/1930     NONE

NASSAU           TIGER PT MARINA   0.00   3.00  07/2000     NONE

NASSAU           A1A EGANS CRK     0.00   2.50  07/2000     NONE

NASAU            EGANS CRK SADLE   0.00   1.00  07/2000     NONE

GLYNN            LIBERTY HARBOR    0.00   2.00  08/0000     NONE

GLYNN            BRUNSWICK DNR     0.00   1.50  08/0000     NONE

GLYNN            MARSHSIDE REST    0.00   2.00  08/0000     NONE

GLYNN            BELLE PT PLANTA   0.00   3.00  08/0000     NONE

PUTNAM           DEEP CRK-FDRL P   0.00   3.50  UNKNOWN     NONE

PUTNAM           FEDERAL PT WEST   0.00   3.50  UNKNOWN     NONE

PUTNAM           RIVERSHORE DR     0.00   2.50  UNKNOWN     NONE

PUTNAM           DUNNS CREEK       0.00   3.00  UNKONWN     NONE

PUTNAM           SPORTSMANS HRBR   0.00   2.50  UNKNOWN     NONE

ST JOHNS         FT MATANZAS NM    0.00   7.00  07/1400    MAJOR


REMARKS: STORM TIDE DATUM IS WITH RESPECT TO MEAN HIGHER HIGH
WATER...MHHW... AND STORM TIDE TIME IN UTC THIS APPROXIMATES ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...AGL...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AREAS. STORM TIDE
VALUES ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT RACY POINT HAD A RECORD SURGE OF 5.2
FEET. ST JOHNS RIVER AT BUCKMAN BRIDGE THE 2ND HIGHEST SURGE. ST
JOHNS RIVER AT DAMES POINT BRIDGE RECORD SURGE. ST JOHNS RIVER AT
MAYPORT 2ND HIGHEST SURGE. TIDE GAUGE AT FERNANDINA BEACH 3RD
HIGHEST SURGE. TIDE GAUGE AT RED BAY ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER WAS SWEPT
WAY BY SURGE AND WAVE ACTION.

 NWS SURVEY...THE POINTS WITH NO SURGE VALUES ARE
PRELIMINARY...REPEAT PRELIMINARY...WATER DEPTHS WITH RESPECT TO MHHW
BASED ON THE LOCAL NWS WFO JACKSONVILLE STORM TIDE SURVEY. THEY ARE
SUBJECT TO REVISION WHEN MORE ACCURATE USGS AND NHC STORM SURGE UNIT
SURVEYS BECOME AVAILABLE. WHILE WE DID OUR BEST TO FIND ACCURATE
STILL WATER HEIGHTS AND ESTIMATE THEIR DEPTH RELATIVE TO MHHW DUE
THE THE LARGE AREA IMPACTED WE COULD NOT VISIT ALL NECESSARY SITES.
WHENEVER POSSIBLE AND INTERIOR WATER MARK FROM A GARAGE OR SHELTERED
PORCH NEAR GROUND LEVEL WAS CHOSEN. AS WE DID NOT HAVE ACCESS TO
MANY OF THE STRUCTURES MANY WATER LINES-MARKS WERE OUTDOOR SITES IN
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY SHELTERED FROM WAVE ACTION BUT STILL POSSIBLY
SUBJECT TO WAVE RUN UP AND WAVE CONTAMINATION. SOME SITES SUCH AS
THE HOMES SOUTH OF MARINELAND AND THE MATANZAS INLET RESTAURANT WERE
SUBJECT TO FULL WAVE ACTION AND THE POINT CHOSEN IN THOSE STRUCTURES
WAS THE BEST AVAILABLE STILL WATER DEPTH.

 MAJOR TO EXTREME BEACH EROSION WAS OBSERVED FROM FLAGLER BEACH
NORTH TO MICKLERS LANDING IN ST JOHNS COUNTY. IN MANY AREAS DUNES
WERE CUT BACK 30 TO 40 FEET WITH 12 TO 16 FOOT VERTICAL CLIFFS LEFT.
LARGE ROCKS UNCOVERED ON THE BEACH WERE MOVED UP TO 150 FEET BACK TO
STATE ROAD A1A AND MAJOR SAND OVER WASH OCCURRED IN MARINALAND...
SUMMERHAVEN...VILANO AND SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH. MAJOR TO LOCALLY
EXTREME BEACH EROSION WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN JACKSONVILLE BEACH WITH
SOME DUNES COMPLETELY SWEPT AWAY. MODERATE BEACH EROSION WAS
OBSERVED IN NASSAU COUNTY WITH 6 TO 7 WASHOUTS IN THE OCEAN BLVD
AREA. MINOR BEACH EROSION WAS REPORTED IN GLYNN COUNTY. CUMBERLAND
ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE WAS NOT SURVEYED.

F. TORNADOES...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(DIST)CITY/TOWN              COUNTY           DATE/         EF SCALE
LAT LON (DEG DECIMAL                          TIME(UTC)    (IF KNOWN)
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------

G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------

COUNTY            DEATHS           INJURIES             EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
FLAGLER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STARTED TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO THE FLAGLER
BEACH PIER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OF THU OCT 6TH WHEN A COUPLE OF
PYLONS WERE WASHED AWAY. AROUND 0227 EDT ON OCT 7TH THE FIRST TS
FORCE WIND GUST OF 47 MPH WAS MEASURED. DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
THE 7TH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 47-61 MPH WERE MEASURED
ACROSS FLAGLER COUNTY...MAINLY EAST OF BUNNELL TOWARD PALM COAST AND
FLAGLER BEACH. DURING THE MORNING BETWEEN 0700 AND 1200 EDT,
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASED TO 57-65 MPH AT MARINELAND
AND FLAGLER BEACH. THE BOARDWALK WAS BEING WASHED AWAY IN THE
VILLAGES OF MATANZAS SHORES AROUND 0900 EDT. STORM SURGE STARTED TO
FLOOD COASTAL HOMES BY 0900 EDT. AT 1120 EDT, SUSTAINED 60 MPH WINDS
WERE MEASURED AT FLAGLER BEACH. REPORTS OF TREES UPROOTED WERE
REPORTED IN PALM COAST BY NOON, AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO
76 MPH WERE MEASURED BY 1124 EDT AT FLAGLER BEACH. AROUND 1146 EDT,
PORTIONS OF COASTAL HIGHWAY A-1A NEAR THE BEACH WERE WASHED OUT IN
FLAGLER BEACH. BETWEEN 1145 AND 1200 EDT...MEASURED GUSTS WERE 67-83
MPH NORTH OF PALM COAST...WITH THE MEASURED WIND GUST OF 83 MPH
RECORDED AT FLAGLER BEACH. BY 1400 EDT...MULTIPLE OCEAN FRONT
STRUCTURES HAD ROOF DAMAGE. BETWEEN 1400-1500 EDT...THE END OF THE
FLAGLER BEACH PIER WAS REPORTED MISSING AND A-1A WAS WASHED OUT UP
AND DOWN THE FLAGLER COUNTY COAST. AT 1800 EDT...THE PALM COAST
SALTWATER CANAL MEASURED A STORM SURGE DEPTH OF 6 FEET...WHICH WAS
ABOUT 44 INCHES OVER THE BULKHEAD. THE PEAK MEASURED WIND GUST WAS
86 MPH AT 1243 EDT AND 1246 EDT AT FLAGLER BEACH AND NORTH PALM
COAST. THERE WERE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 MPH
INLAND. ADDITIONAL STORM SURGE REPORTS INCLUDED WATER INTO THE BULL
CREEK FISH CAMP RESTAURANT...AND SURGE IMPACTED AREAS NORTH OF MALA
COMPRA ROAD TO THE NORTH COUNTY LINE. REPORTS OF A 5-6 FT WATER RISE
WERE REPORTED IN THE PALM COAST CANALS. RAINFALL REPORTS INCLUDED
5.2 INCHES AT THE FLAGLER EOC IN BUNNELL...6.49 INCHES IN PALM
COAST...4.9 INCHES IN ST. JOHNS PARK...6.02 INCHES PINE LAKES OF
PALM COAST....5.8 INCHES IN SOUTHWEST PALM COAST.

PUTNAM               1

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STARTED CAUSING TREE DAMAGE IN PALATKA
AROUND 0713 EDT ON OCT 7TH WHEN A TREE FELL ON A HOME. AT 1500
EDT...ONE 55 YEAR OLD FEMALE WAS KILLED DUE TO HURRICANE FORCE WIND
GUSTS BLOWING DOWN A TREE ONTO THE TRAILER IN WHICH SHE SOUGHT STORM
SHELTER IN A CAMPER AT A CAMPGROUND NEAR CRESCENT CITY. AT 2041
EDT...FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON TARPON BLVD IN BOSTWICK. CANALS ABOUT
A QUARTER MILE AWAY FROM THE ST. JOHNS RIVER EXPERIENCED FLOODING ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE ROADWAY. PHOTOS FROM PUTNAM COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT INDICATED EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE
IN EAST PALATKA AND BOSTWICK AFTER 1500 EDT...INCLUDING THE FAR END
OF EAST RIVER ROAD. THE BOSTWICK AREA HAD UP TO 3 FEET OF RIVER
FLOODING IN MANY LOCATIONS NEAR THE RIVER...INCLUDING IN STRUCTURES
AND HOMES. CEDAR CREEK AND PALMETTO BLUFF OF BOSTWICK HAD WIDESPREAD
FLOODING OVER ROADS AND WITHIN YARDS...WITH TREE DAMAGE. THE BOAT
RAMP AT EGLIN GROVE IN EAST PALATKA WAS OVER-WASHED BY AT LEAST 3 TO
4 FEET OF WATER WITH A LOT OF FLOODING DEBRIS IN THE AREA. WATER
ACCUMULATED UNDER STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN
THE RIVER BASIN AHEAD OF HURRICANE MATTHEW...AND WHEN THE STORM
SURGE COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDE AND STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW COINCIDED
OVER THE ST. JOHNS FRIDAY...RIVER FLOODING WAS EXTENSIVE. WIND
DAMAGE OCCURRED TO STRUCTURES...INCLUDING AT CRILL DRIVE AND STATE
ROAD 19 IN PALATKA WHERE METAL ROOFING WAS ROLLED AND DAMAGED.

NASSAU

AT 1530 EDT ON OCTOBER 7TH...THE FERNANDINA BEACH TIDE GAUGE
REPORTED A PEAK WATER LEVEL OF 6.91 FT ABOVE NAVD88 DATUM. THIS WAS
4.32 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED HIGH TIDE OF 2.59 FT NAVD88 DATUM. THIS
VALUE RANKED AS THE THIRD HIGHEST WATER LEVEL RECORDED AT THIS GAUGE
SITE BEHIND THE OCT 2ND 1898 AND OCT 19TH 1944 HURRICANE...AND WAS
ABOVE BOTH HURRICANES DORA AND JEANNE. AT 1945 EDT A TREE FELL ON A
STREET LIGHT AND TRANSFORMER AT 14TH AND ATLANTIC. AT 2100 EDT...TWO
LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY NEAR IRVIN AVENUE
AND COMPLETELY BLOCKED THE ROAD. AT 2226 EDT ON OCT 7TH...A LARGE
TREE AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON ATLANTIC AVENUE ON AMELIA
ISLAND. THROUGH THE EVENT...WIDESPREAD TREE...POWERLINE AND SOME
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS REPORTED DUE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE. MOST OF THE WIND DAMAGE WAS ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS INCLUDING FERNANDINA BEACH. THERE WERE REPORTS OF TREES
DOWN ON STRUCTURES AS WELL. AT ASH AND FRONT STREET...A MOTEL AWNING
WAS BLOWN UP AGAINST A RAILROAD CROSSING. AT 1945 EDT...A GAS
STATION AWNING WAS BLOWN OVER ON 8TH STREET IN FERNANDINA BEACH. A
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY WAS ISSUED FOR THE EGANS CREEK DRAINAGE AT
1540 EDT AS THE SURGE AND SEICHE IMPACTS MOVED DOWN THE DRAINAGE.
EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF FLETCHER AVENUE OCCURRED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
600 BLOCK SECTION WHICH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO THE 1500 BLOCK OF
FLETCHER AVENUE AND SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN DRIVE. THESE AREAS ARE JUST
EAST OF EGANS CREEK. WATER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A SEICHE
FLOOD TRAILING THE STORM SURGE THAT LIKELY FLOODED EGANS CREEK AS
HURRICANE MATTHEW STARTED TO TRACK FARTHER NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WITH A SWITCH IN WINDS TO THE NNW...PUSHING SURGE WATERS BACK ACROSS
THE EGANS CREEK DRAINAGE. AT THIS TIME...ABOUT $10 MILLION IN STORM
DAMAGE HAS BEEN ESTIMATED ACROSS THE COUNTY. AT 1830 EDT...THE
HIGHEST STORM SURGE VALUE ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WAS
MEASURED AT THE FERNANDINA NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAGE AT 9.89
FT NAVD88 DATUM.

DUVAL

TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS STARTED EARLY MORNING ON OCT 7TH. REPORTS
OF TREES DOWN BEGAN WITH THE FIRST REPORT AROUND 730 AM EDT OF A
LARGE TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN IN ORTEGA. A TREE WAS REPORTED ON A
HOME IN EAST ARLINGTON AROUND THE SAME TIME. BETWEEN 11 AM EDT AND
NOON...THE JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A 51 MPH GUST
WHILE A TREE WAS REPORTED TO CRUSH A CAR ON WOOD AVE IN ARLINGTON.
WINDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND IN THE AFTERNOON
CRAIG AIRPORT STARTING TO REPORT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. AT 415 PM EDT...CRAIG AIRPORT REPORTED SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS
AT 41 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 62 MPH. AT 135 PM EDT...THE JACKSONVILLE
BEACH PIER REPORTED 61 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 76 MPH. TREES WERE
REPORTED DOWN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM
EDT...TREES CAME DOWN ON 103RD STREET...DUNN AVE...PULASKI AND
TERRELL ROADS. AT 624 PM EDT...TREES WERE DOWNED ON I-95 SOUTHBOUND
NEAR MILE MARKER 339...BLOCKING 2 LANES. AT 740 PM EDT...A LARGE
TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO POWER LINES NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
JULINGTON CREEK ROAD AND CARON DRIVE. AT 954 PM EDT...SIGNIFICANT
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS DONE AT A SURF SHOP AT BEACH BLVD. AND 9TH ST.
SOUTH. AT 1125 PM EDT...TREES WERE DOWN ON I-10 EAST BOUND NEAR
CHAFFEE ROAD...BLOCKING ONE LANE. FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED...WITH
COMMONWEALTH AVE CLOSED BETWEEN ELLIS AND LANE AVENUES DUE TO WATER
OVER THE ROAD. COASTAL FLOODING WAS REPORTED ALONG THE BEACHES AND
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. THE NOAA TIDE GAUGE AT MAYPORT REPORTED 5.14
FEET ABOVE NAV88D DATUM...WHICH IS THE 2ND HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD
SINCE THE OCTOBER 1898 HURRICANE. AT 5 PM EDT...THE DAMES POINT
BRIDGE NOAA TIDE GAUGE REPORTED 4.19 FEET ABOVE NAV88D DATUM...WHICH
WAS 2.3 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED. AT 806 PM EDT...THE NOAA TIDE GAUGE AT
THE BUCKMAN BRIDGE WAS 3.42 FEET ABOVE NAV88D...WHICH WAS 2.43 FEET
ABOVE PREDICTED. JACKSONVILLE ELECTRIC AUTHORITY (JEA) REPORTED THAT
55 PERCENT OF CUSTOMERS LOST POWER. JEA REPORTED WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. DUVAL COUNTY EMA REPORTED RESIDENTS ALONG CHERRY
ST WITHIN 150 FT OF THE ENTRANCE TO CHERRY ST PARK STATED THERE WAS
SOME FLOODING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 2 PM ON OCT 7TH.

ST JOHNS

STORM SURGE FLOODING WAS SEVERE AS A NWS STORM SURVEY REPORTED A NEW
INLET HAD FORMED BETWEEN MARINELAND AND MATANZAS INLET. THE NWS
STORM SURVEY ESTIMATED STORM SURGE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG OLD A-1A IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW INLET NEAR
SUMMERHAVEN. SEVERE DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN SUMMERHAVEN AS WELL AS
MATANZAS INLET WITH MANY HOUSES AND SEVERAL BUSINESSES INUNDATED
WITH WATER OF AT LEAST 3 FEET DEEP. EXTREME BEACH EROSION UP AND
DOWN THE COAST WAS PER AN NWS SURVEY. STORM SURGE FLOODING WAS
REPORTED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE SEA WALL IN ST AUGUSTINE
BEACH AND AT THE CASTILLO DE SAN MARCOS SEA WALL. AVERAGE WATER
DEPTH WAS FROM 2.5 TO 4.0 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE CITY OF ST.
AUGUSTINE...WITH THE GREATEST DEPTHS IN THAT RANGE OCCURRING ALONG
THE BAYFRONT AND ALSO ALONG THE SAN SEBASTIAN RIVER. WATER WAS ALSO
REPORTED FLOWING ACROSS ANASTASIA ISLAND AT ABOUT 2.5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL. AT PONTE VEDRA BEACH...STORM SURGE MOVED THE SAND DUNE
LINE BACK 30 TO 40 FEET AND ERODED THE DUNES VERTICALLY SUCH THAT
THERE ARE NOW 12 TO 16 FOOT CLIFFS AT THE EDGE OF THE DUNES. THIS
EXTREME EROSION HAS UNDERMINED NUMEROUS STRUCTURES ALONG THE
BEACHFRONT IN PONTE VEDRA BEACH. THE NOAA TIDE GAUGE ON THE ST JOHNS
RIVER AT RACY POINT REPORTED A PEAK WATER LEVEL OF 5.05 FEET ABOVE
NAVD88 DATUM...WHICH WAS 3.85 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE GUSTS BEGAN IN ST JOHNS COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT OCT 6TH. AT
VILANO BEACH WINDS WERE REPORTED AT 39 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 46 MPH AT
11 PM. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS WERE REPORTED NEAR THE COAST ON OCT
7TH. THE C-MAN (SAUF1) SITE ON THE ST AUGUSTINE PIER REPORTED A 79
MPH GUST AT 1150 AM EDT AND AN 86 MPH (75 KNOT) PEAK GUST AT 128 PM
EDT ON THE 7TH. GUANA RIVER STATE PARK REPORTED A 72 MPH GUST AT 145
PM...WHILE THE VILANO BEACH BRIDGE HAD A 60 MPH GUST. WIND DAMAGE
REPORTS INCLUDED A TREE UPROOTED ONTO A HOME IN ST AUGUSTINE SHORES
AROUND 8 AM AND SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO FIRST COAST POWERSPORTS
OFF U.S. 1 HIGHWAY IN THE MID AFTERNOON. A LARGE TREE FELL ON SAN
MARCO AVE NEAR HOPE STREET IN ST AUGUSTINE AND ALSO ON I-95 NEAR
INTERNATIONAL GOLF PARKWAY BLOCKING ONE LANE. THUS FAR ABOUT $2
BILLION IN STORM DAMAGES ACROSS THE COUNTY.

CLAY

WINDS REACHED TROPICAL STORM FORCE STRENGTH...WHICH DOWNED NUMEROUS
TREES. DURING THE MORNING OF OCT 7TH...TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN IN
EAGLE HARBOR ON FLEMING ISLAND AND ALSO ON A HOME AND VEHICLE IN
ORANGE PARK. DURING THE EVENING...A TREE FELL ON A HOUSE IN GREEN
COVE SPRINGS. TREES WERE ALSO REPORTED DOWN ON ELDERBERRY COURT IN
ORANGE PARK AND ON PINE AVE IN FLEMING ISLAND. DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...THE SOUTH FORK OF BLACK CREEK NEAR PENNEY FARMS REACHED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND CRESTED AT 16.5 FEET ON THE MORNING OF OCT
8TH.

BRANTLEY

ONE BUILDING WAS SEVERELY DAMAGED AND CONSIDERED A LOSS AT AUCTION
ROAD AND PETE AVE IN WAYNESVILLE. SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON
HOMES IN NAHUNTA...ATKINSON AND WAYNESVILLE. THE TIN ROOF OF THE
RECREATION DEPARTMENT BALL FIELDS ON JOHN WILSON ST IN NAHUNTA WAS
DAMAGED. DAMAGE TO THE BREEZEWAY OF HOBOKEN ELEMENTARY WAS DAMAGED.
OVER 6000 PEOPLE WERE WITHOUT POWER. MAJOR ROAD DAMAGE OCCURRED TO
20 ROADS IN WAYNESVILLE AND ATKINSON. OVER 100 TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN
IN NAHUNTA...ATKINSON AND WAYNESVILLE. THERE WERE ALSO SOME TREES
DOWN IN HOBOKEN AND CALVARY FIRE DISTRICTS.

ALACHUA

SANTA FE COLLEGE REPORTED MINOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING A STOP SIGN DOWN
AND TREE DAMAGE TO A ZOO ENCLOSURE (NO IMPACT TO WILDLIFE). A TREE
WAS BLOWN DOWN ADJACENT TO A ROAD. OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDED MINOR
LEAKS AND DEBRIS CLEANUP.

MARION

A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED LARGE TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN FROM HEALTHY
OAK TREES ALONG SW 32ND AVENUE BETWEEN SW 27TH AVENUE AND SW 34TH
COURT IN OCALA. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS WERE TO 50 MPH AROUND 10 PM EDT
ON OCT. 8TH. A LARGE TREE BRANCH WAS BLOWN DOWN ON SW 34TH ST AT
32ND COURT IN OCALA. THERE WAS ALSO A LARGE BRANCH DOWN ALONG 34TH
ST AND 32ND AVE IN OCALA. THERE WERE NUMEROUS SMALL TREE BRANCHES
BLOWN DOWN THROUGHOUT POLLY PALMER PARK NEAR SW 34TH ST IN OCALA.

GLYNN

GLYNN COUNTY EXPERIENCED STORM SURGE FLOODING AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MATTHEW. AT 3 PM EDT ON
OCT 7TH...THE USGS TIDE GAUGE AT SAINT SIMONS ISLAND REPORTED A
LEVEL OF 6.15 FEET ABOVE NAVD88. THIS WAS 2.04 FEET ABOVE THE
PREDICTED LEVEL OF 4.11 FEET. BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM EDT...A 64 MPH WIND
GUST WAS REPORTED BY A MESONET GAUGE ON JEKYLL ISLAND AND A 62 MPH
GUST WAS REPORTED ON SAINT SIMONS ISLAND. AROUND 730 PM EDT OCT
7TH...A LARGE TREE WAS REPORTED BLOCKING CHAPEL CROSSING ROAD ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF BRUNSWICK. BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 100 AM EDT OCT
8TH...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES WERE RECEIVED. TREES FELL ON
HOMES ON JEKYLL ISLAND OFF TYLER LANE...OLD PLANTATION
ROAD...RIVERVIEW DRIVE AND ALSO AT PERKINS STREET AND CAPTAIN WYLLY
ROAD. IN BRUNSWICK...A LARGE TREE WAS DOWN AT THE 400 BLOCK OF
NORWICH STREET. MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS DONE TO AN ARBY`S
RESTAURANT ON THE ALTAMAHA CONNECTOR IN BRUNSWICK.

CAMDEN

ON OCTOBER 7TH...JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...A TREE AND POWERLINE WERE
KNOCKED DOWN AT POINT PETER ROAD AND THE NORTH RIVER CAUSEWAY
BLOCKING THE INTERSECTION.

COLUMBIA

AT 330 PM EDT ON OCT 7TH...A TREE REPORTEDLY DESTROYED AN OCCUPIED
MOBILE HOME ON SE BAYA DRIVE IN LAKE CITY. NO INJURIES WERE
REPORTED.

BRADFORD

NUMEROUS TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN IN STARKE AT AROUND 3 PM EDT ON
OCT 7TH. THE CITY WAS ALSO REPORTED TO BE SHUT DOWN.

WAYNE

DURING THE EVENING OF OCT 7TH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
REACHED THE JESUP AREA. AT 815 PM EDT...THE JESUP ASOS MEASURED A
WIND GUST OF 58 MPH.

APPLING

AT 740 PM EDT ON OCT 7TH...AN OAK TREE WAS REPORTED DOWNED OVER
POWERLINES ON GRAHAM STREET IN BAXLEY.

$$

Legend:
I-Incomplete Data 

E-Estimated

Other N.W.S. summaries:

-- Miami

-- Melbourne

-- Charleston

-- Newport/Morehead City

-- Norfolk, Va.

 

Cat. 5 "Matthew" Fri. night, Sept. 30th:

Hurricane hunter aircraft radar imagery when "Matthew" was Cat. 5!:

Concentric eyewalls on Oct. 4th:

The First Alert Action News "general" wind forecast:

General power outage threat:

Fri. morning about 7:15am - First Alert Doppler HD radial velocities showing 100+ mph winds offshore:

Thoughtful platter from the Hyatt Regency Jacksonville Riverfront: (many in the newsroom brought the First Alert weather m'gists drinks &/or food.  None seemed better than the very simply but delicious instant oatmeal that Paige Kelton whipped up for me about 7pm Fri.  Swear it tasted like filet mignon :) )

My wife heating up leftovers on the gas grill while the power is out:

News 1-0-4-5 WOKV Rich Jones pointed out in this tweet: "Can't recall seeing this from First Alert Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh": 

Jax Beach did fare better than many other beaches, especially to the south.  This can at least partially be attributed to an outgoing tide (vs. high) & the distance (45+ miles) offshore.

Talking with NHC Director, Dr.Rick Knabb Fri. afternoon, Oct. 14th:

Quick unplanned interview with Jason Hess, Jax N.W.S.:

Surf Station, St. Augustine:

EverBank Field: 

..... & last but not least.... a precious message from Khloe Guthrie :)