Aug. 11, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
Watch "Surviving the Storm".....
The Atlantic Basin is more or less quiet. A weak wave is about midway between the Caribbean & the coast of Africa. Some slight development is possible over the next several days but long term development seems unlikely.
A nontropical low over the N. Atlantic could try to take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics far to the northeast of the Bahamas. This system will stay over open water & away from any land areas.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......
The Atlantic Basin....
Caribbean:
Gulf of Mexico:
Water vapor imagery:
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Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....
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Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
The Pacific has gone quieter after a busy 7-10 days. Kristy will soon dissipate far from any land areas. Hector will soon cross the dateline from the Central Pacific having originated in the E. Pacific! That's only happened three other times - map below tweeted by the "Capital Weather Gang":
Kristy:
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Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of "upward motion" (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by "sinking" air. This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.
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Updated NOAA seasonal forecast:
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Cox Media Group
