Franklin becomes a hurricane - Aug. 9th

Aug. 9, 2017 — Franklin will roll into Mexico by early Thu... no impacts on Jacksonville......

"Franklin" remained - as expected - reasonably intact while crossing the Yucatan Peninsula so has been steadily strengthening over the Bay of Campeche turning into the first Atlantic Basin hurricane of the '17 season late in the day Wed.  The 2nd landfall (first was a tropical storm on the Yucatan Peninsula) will be Wed. night/early Thu. on the coast of Mexico well south of Texas.

There will be NO impacts for Jacksonville or any of Florida.... or any of the U.S. for that matter.

Meanwhile... an active tropical wave ('99-L') is struggling over the Central Atlantic but there does appear to be low level circulation (possible low pressure).  Global forecast models vary on whether this wave will develop while turning northwest then north by the weekend/early next week while over the SW Atlantic.

A weaker system should go farther west largely steered by the low level trade winds. We still need to keep a wary eye on the longer term when conditions might be more favorable for stronger development (late this week & especially into the weekend).  The tropical disturbance should be east of the Bahamas by Sunday & possibly east of Florida by early next week.  The GFS upper level forecast map for early Mon. (3rd image below) shows a weak trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. with the Bermuda high shifted a little east over the Atlantic.  The result is an alleyway of sorts for anything tropical to follow which would mean east of at least Florida if not the entire U.S. east coast.  Something to keep an eye on!

A wide view of the Atlantic Basin shows (L-R) "Franklin", a weak mostly upper level disturbance over the Bahamas, wave '99L' & yet another tropical wave at a more southern latitude -- near 10 degrees N, 50 degrees W --  that will approach the SE Caribbean by next week.

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Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear):

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Water vapor imagery:

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows African Saharan dust (orange & red) breaking up a little over the E. Atlantic (typical later in the hurricane season):

SE U.S. surface map.... the cold front & associated upper level trough hints that anything tropical approaching the W. Atlantic probably turns north.

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University updated his seasonal forecast Friday.  He increased the total storm number by 1 with an active season still anticipated.  If the forecast is accurate, we are in for an awfully active 2-3 months.   NOAA will issue their updated seasonal forecast Wed.

Cox Media Group