Franklin hits Mexico as a Cat. 1 hurricane - Aug. 10th

Aug. 10, 2017 — Franklin hit the Mexican coast in the state of Veracruz near the town of Lechuguillas about 1am EDT as a Cat. 1 hurricane......

"Franklin" became the first hurricane of the '17 season over the Atlantic Basin Wed. afternoon.  The storm will quickly fall apart over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.

Meanwhile... an active tropical wave ('99-L') is struggling over the Central Atlantic but there does appear to be low level circulation (possible low pressure).  Global forecast models vary on whether this wave will develop while turning northwest then north by the weekend/early next week while over the SW Atlantic.

The tropical disturbance should be east of the Bahamas by Sunday & possibly east of Florida by early next week.  The GFS upper level forecast map for early Mon. (3rd image below) shows a weak trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. with the Bermuda high shifted a little east over the Atlantic.  The result is an alleyway of sorts for anything tropical to follow which would mean east of at least Florida if not the entire U.S. east coast.  Something to keep an eye on but all indications - at this point - are that this disturbance stays well east of Fl.

A wide view of the Atlantic Basin shows (L-R) "Franklin", a weak mostly upper level disturbance over the Bahamas, wave '99L' & yet another tropical wave at a more southern latitude that's approaching the Caribbean near the north coast of S. America.

Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear).  Wave '99L' will moving into an area of lower shear but forecast models generally only show modest development, if any at all....

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Water vapor imagery:

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Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows African Saharan dust (orange & red) breaking up a little over the E. Atlantic (typical later in the hurricane season) but still pretty prevalent:

SE U.S. surface map.... the cold front & associated upper level trough hints that anything tropical approaching the W. Atlantic probably turns north.

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

NOAA issued their updated season hurricane forecast Wed.  No surprise in that the numbers were increased even more from their last forecast (May):

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University updated his seasonal forecast last Friday.  He increased the total storm number by 1 with an active season still anticipated.  If the forecast is accurate, we are in for an awfully active 2-3 months.

Cox Media Group