Hurricane Jose coming out of its loop east of Florida

Sept. 14, 2017 — Jose:

.... became a "major" hurricane last week & is feeling the effects of southwesterly shear...  but is finally coming out of its loop.  Movement now will be to the northwest with a gradual trend to the north likely intensifying during this time (Fri. - Mon.). I do not see "Jose" moving into Fl..  Indications are that "Jose" will turn northward far to the east of Florida missing the Southeast U.S. coast but the upper east coast is not necessarily out of the woods yet.  An approaching upper level trough of low pressure will at least try to draw "Jose" a little bit northwest by the early to middle part of next week as the system transitions to an extratropical low while flirting with the coast of New England.  An easterly swell will reach Northeast Fl./SE Ga. beaches through the weekend with an enhanced rip current risk.  Onshore northeast winds will develop because of "Jose" to the east & high pressure to the north but the gradient does not look all that strong so winds will not be real strong.  The onshore flow out of the east will keep some flood water trapped a little longer along the shores of NE Fl/SE Ga. as well as along the St. Johns River & inland tributataries.

The upper level (500mb) chart below for early Sat. shows the "stream"/troughing that will help pull "Jose" northward before letting go.  Then the approach of a strong upper level trough from the west will have something to say about the long term movement of Jose.  The mid & upper U.S. east coast could be in for at least some kind of threat from Jose whether tropical or subtropical.  At the very least, rough seas & surf will develop from Chesapeake Bay to Maine next week.

NOAA WaveWatch III below predicated on GFS model - will change & update - hit refresh for latest + loop:

Very warm ocean water persists:

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf.  We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.

The Gulf & Caribbean remain quiet.  There are indications of a general lowering of surface pressures across this area for late month which might be a hint pointing to tropical "mischief".

East Atlantic IR satellite shows strong tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.  Long range development is quite likely.....

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Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS):

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The main development region (MDR) remains above avg. temps. - in fact - only 2005 & 2010 were warmer.  The deep warm ocean water can "energize" tropical cyclones:

SE U.S. surface map - cold front is part of the equation for where Irma goes....

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Irma is still "spinning its wheels" over the middle of the U.S. absorbed by a large but relatively weak upper level low.  The system is now a post-tropical low pressure area & will continue to weaken, but the circualtion is still very evident on satellite imagery.

Hurricane Irma made the turn to the northwest & now north after ravaging the Keys.  Ft. Myers & much of Florida. this is the first "major" Fl. hurricane landfall since Cat. 3 "Wilma" in Oct., 2005 (Twitter did not yet exist!)...

The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

The last advisory by the NHC on "Irma" was issued Tue. morning as the storm has become post tropical.  The low pressure area will continue to spin itself out over the Tennessee Valley.  Overall conditions will continue to improve for NE Fl./SE Ga. as each high tide cycle gradually gets lower for the rest of the week.  But some flooding at high tide + residual standing water will continue to be a concern.  'First Alert'! at area beaches where a high risk of rip currents will continue.

SUNRISE: ~7:10 AM .... SUNSET: ~7:35 PM

IRMA BY THE NUMBERS:

- 185 mph winds (Cat. 5) for 37 hours is a record for any tropical cylcone on earth

- a hurricane for 12 days with first NHC advisory Aug. 30th & last one on Sept. 12th

- a Cat. 3 or stronger for 8.5 days - 2nd longest on record (Ivan, 2004 - also hit Fl. [Panhandle])

- 1st Cat. 5 to hit the Bahamas since 1992 (Andrew) - 3rd straight year that a Cat. 3 or stronger hurricane has it the Bahamas

- Strongest hurricane ever to hit any part of the Leeward Islands

- most severe flood on the St. Johns River, Jacksonville since at least 1854

- 1st Cat. 5 to hit Cuba since 1924

- 10th lowest pressure (914mb) on record

Irma remnant low / upper level system over Gulf/Tennessee & Ohio Valley's..... "Jose" over W. Atlantic.....

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Preliminarly highest water levels from NOAA.  Further ground verification will follow & result in some higher numbers ultimately - especially for the Keys & S. Florida.  What pops out is the highest so far is the I-295 Bridge (Buckman)!.... then the southerly wind on the east side of Irma pushed all that water north to downtown resulting in the massive once in a generation flood for Riverside & San Marco.

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