Low pressure soon to move over Gulf of Mexico.... heavy rain for Jacksonville

May 25, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Low pressure remains over the Yucatan Peninsula & will finally slowly move northward over the Gulf of Mexico Friday night into Saturday possibly acquiring subtropical or even full tropical characteristics in the process. It appears the most probable "landfall" is from the Fl. Panhandle to New Orleans - centered on the area from Biloxi to Mobile - sometime Sunday/Sunday night lingering along the coast into the early part of next week. Given this track... the impacts for Jacksonville / NE Fl. / SE Ga. are mainly fringe - in order of magnitude:

* heavy rain - rainfall will average 2-4" Sat. - Mon. but locally more causing some localized flooding. Most of this total will fall Sunday/Memorial Day.

* rip currents at area beaches. A broad & persistent onshore flow out of the southeast will cause a moderate to high rip current risk through the holiday weekend. Never swim & surf alone & always as close to lifeguard as possible.

* somewhat breezy winds of 10-20 mph with local much higher brief gusts - 40-50 mph - with any strong rain bands or with any stronger thunderstorms

* very isolated waterspouts or tornadoes - higher tornado threat to the west

If traveling west along the I-10 corridor through the Panhandle to Mobile, Biloxi & New Orleans, flooding rain will be likely along with rip currents at beach locations... strong winds... at least some storm surge... & a few tornadoes.

May tropical cyclones have occurred 4 times in the last 5 years:

2016 (1 - Bonnie)... 2015 (1 - Ana)... 2012 (2 - Alberto & Beryl).

The list of names repeats every 6 years, & we could have another (2012) early "Alberto" this year.

On an interesting historical note - only 4 tropical or subtropical cyclones have developed over the Gulf of Mexico since 1851 during the month of May. Just 1 of those storms has been during the satellite era of the early 1960s - on May 22nd, 1976.

The area to watch is the West & Northwest Caribbean as a poorly organized area of low pressure sits near & over the Eastern Yucatan Peninsula. The system will drift to the north with a surface low gradually developing over the Central &/or Eastern Gulf of Mexico followed by a little more speed over the Central Gulf north/northeast turning more north then northwest with time.

A combination of strong shear out of the west... dry air over the Western Gulf.... & marginal sea surface temps. should all add up to a system that struggles & is heavily weighted on the east side which is typical of early season tropical disturbances. Shear from the west & southwest will remain significant keeping the heavier rain & gusty winds over the eastern circulation. Shear will lessen over the far Northern Gulf & some forecast models respond by showing an intensifying system - this is something to consider.

The screaming message with this disturbance will be heavy rain potential for Jacksonville & especially west along the I-10 corridor all the way to New Orleans. The more west you go from Jacksonville, the stronger the impacts: gusty winds, rough seas/surf, rip currents, some storm surge & heavy rain.

Water vapor imagery shows a lot of dry air over the Western Gulf of Mexico - another obstacle for any strong development as the disturbance moves north over the Gulf....

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). Notice the red lines across the gulf indicating strong shear which will likely limit just how strong the Gulf disturbance will become & keep the disturbance's heavy rain & what wind might develop over the eastern part of the low level circulation. Shear will be less significant over the Northern Gulf.