Major hurricane Maria headed for Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands

Sept. 19, 2017 — Photos: Must-see photos of Irma damage in Jacksonville area

Live updates: Maria strengthens to Category 5 hurricane

The Atlantic remains active with "Jose" over the W. Atlantic... powerful "Maria" moving into the Caribbean & approaching Puerto Rico.... Lee" dissipates.....

A series of Facebook posts by Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit Mon. night captured the power of Hurricane Maria:

About 8:45 p.m. Skerrit writes: "The winds are merciless! We shall survive by the grace of God!" A few minutes later, he writes that he can hear the sound of galvanized steel roofs coming off houses on the small, rugged island in the eastern Caribbean. He then writes that he believes his home has been damaged. And three words: "Rough! Rough! Rough!" A half-hour later he says "My roof is gone. I am at the complete mercy of the hurricane. House is flooding." Seven minutes later he posts that he has been rescued.​

Only 6 other seasons have had 13 named storms by Sept. 16th - 1933, 1936, 1995, 2005, 2011 & 2012 (Klotzbach).

The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Maria:

Maria became the 2nd Cat. 5 of the season over the Atlantic Basin - the first time that's happened since 2007 (Dean & Felix). The forecast track is pretty straight forward (if there is a such a thing!) this week.... but things become more complicated in the long range.

For the moment.... it appears "Maria" will stay east of Florida which means a heightened rip current risk at area beaches over the weekend into early next week.  As long as Maria stays well east, direct impacts will be limited.

Jose is adding to the forecast confusion as some models show some interaction by early next week over the Western Atlantic though at that long range, there is a lot that can change when it comes to upper level flow & overall steering currents.  Ultimately I don't believe the two tropical cyclones will directly interact but what happens in the atmosphere with & near Jose may dictate Maria's movement in the coming days & whether or not there's a direct hit on the U.S.  It does appear Maria will work northward through the weakness in the upper level flow that Jose has followed.

I am concerned about a more west shift in the long term track overall due to:

(1) upper level ridge that will have the potential to develop underneath (south) of "Jose"

(2) the Atlantic pattern since spring has been dominated by a strong & expansive Bermuda high.  Attention to long range model forecasts this season have shown an east & even north bias early in the forecast cycles.

So how do we solve a problem like Maria?  Well... much will come down to any upper level ridging near the U.S. east coast.  At the moment, virtually all of the long range global models have shifted east following a wake of sorts to the south of northward moving Jose.  It's the ol' "cork in a stream" - the hurricane is going to follow the path of least resistance.  It's my humble opinion, that Maria is not a simple recurve harmlessly over the W. Atlantic after battering parts of the Caribbean & Bahamas even though models have recently trended east.  Let's hope the trend (east of the U.S.) turns out to be reality.

There may also be some interaction with the land mass of Puerto Rico & very mountainous Hispaniola which could play a role in intensity of the storm & - in some ways - the track of the tropical cyclone.  At the moment, it looks like the eye stays a little north & east of the Dominican Republic.

Composite radar of Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands:

Spaghetti model plots for "Maria":

The chart below is the 500mb (upper level) forecast from the GFS model for early Sat., 09/23.  The atmosphere is going through some major buckling as a big trough of low pressure moves into the Western U.S. helping to induce ridging over the Eastern U.S.  But there's just enough "softness" over the W. Atlantic for an "out" route for Maria.   Ridging should gradually have a tendency to develop given the large trough over the Western U.S. but not until Maria has moved well north & then east.  If the ridging is faster then the U.S. has a problem with regards to Maria.  This latter scenario appears to be an outlier for now.  But the overall atmospheric picture/steering flow becomes much more muddled if - for some reason - Maria slows.

Jose:

....  The hurricane has made the turn more north & is slowly weakening while also gradually transitioning to a subtropical storm.

There will be no major direct impacts on Fl..  But "Jose" will bring strong winds & rough seas/surf to New England including Boston by midweek while a very high rip current risk will occur from the beaches of of the Carolina's to Maine with a tropical storm WARNING in effect for Southern New England & a tropical storm WATCH for Eastern Long Island.

Jose looking much more like a subtropical system....

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NOAA WaveWatch III below predicated on GFS model - will change & update - hit refresh for latest + loop:

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Very warm ocean water persists:

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf.  We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.

Sea surface temp. anomalies show sea surface temps. have cooled some across the Northern Gulf & surrounding Fl. most likely caused by the recent tropical cyclones....

"Lee" has lost the battle to shear over the E. Atlantic.  No regeneration is expected in the short term but some forecast models show a bit of a comeback in the long range.

The Gulf & Caribbean (outside of the NE corner & "Maria") remain quiet.  There are indications of a general lowering of surface pressures across this area for late month which might be a hint pointing to tropical "mischief" in 10 days to 2 weeks over the NW Caribbean &/or Southern Gulf of Mexico.

East Atlantic IR satellite -- the African wave season is gradually winding down....

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS):

SE U.S. surface map - cold front is part of the equation for where Irma goes....

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Hurricane Irma recap: made the turn to the northwest & then north after ravaging the Keys, Ft. Myers & much of Florida last weekend into the early part of last week. this is the first "major" Fl. hurricane landfall since Cat. 3 "Wilma" in Oct., 2005 (Twitter did not yet exist!)...

The last advisory by the NHC on "Irma" was issued late in the evening Mon., Sept. 11th as the storm became post tropical.

Preliminarily highest water levels from NOAA.  Further ground verification will follow & result in some higher numbers ultimately (probably) - especially for the Keys & S. Florida.  What pops out is the highest so far is the I-295 Bridge (Buckman)!.... then the southerly wind on the east side of Irma pushed all that water north to downtown resulting in the massive once in a generation flood for Riverside & San Marco.  Initial post storm analysis is showing salinity of the St. Johns River at the peak of the "Great Flood" to not be as great as during the peak of flooding during/immediately after Matthew last year.

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