"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Bermuda hit by "Karl" - Sept. 24th

Sept. 24, 2016 — "Karl" over the Central Atlantic... weakening "Lisa" far E. Atlantic.... strong tropical wave over E. Atlantic.....

You will hear & see lots of "hubbub" regarding the wave now far to the east that will be into the Caribbean about the middle of next week.... stay HERE for the "real deal" - just the facts. :)

IT'S THE PEAK MONTH OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...  You should always be prepared & aware.  First Alert Hurricane Center ** here **.  Reminder that flood insurance policies take 30 days to take effect..... & will not be written when/if a named storm is nearby.

Tropical cyclone "Karl" hit Bermuda early Sat. with sustained tropical storm force winds + heavy rain.  "Karl" has fully recurved & is now rapidly moving to the northeast & will become a post-tropical cyclone over the N. Atlantic.  Conditions will quickly improve for Bermuda.

Water vapor imagery below shows a good deal of dry air over the Central Atlantic....

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows "Karl" sandwiched between two high shear zones ... also strong shear across much of the Caribbean which will be something to watch next week as our E. Atlantic wave moves into the Caribbean.....

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Gulf of Mexico:

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East Atlantic:

Satellite imagery centered on Africa & the far E. Atlantic shows tropical waves continuing to move westward & still lined up across Africa - pretty classic for this time of year though we will be nearing the end of the "wave train" typically within a couple of weeks or so.  A wave that moved off Africa last weekend & became "Lisa" is now falling apart as strong southwesterly shear pushed the strongest convection northeast of the center.  "Lisa" will become a post-tropical low over the weekend.

A strong wave that moved off Africa the last couple of days is at a more southern latitude with the potential for development.  Several long range global forecast models latch onto this wave taking the wave quickly into the Caribbean by the middle to end of next week.  Definitely a wave to watch but, of course, still very early in the possible system's evolution.  The key to this wave's track in the long run will be a strong midlatitude trough of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the Lower 48 of the U.S.  This feature may very well draw northward whatever is in the Caribbean.  But if the upper trough is not deep enough (far enough south), the Caribbean system could be missed which would mean movement farther to the west.

"Lisa":

Lots of warm water to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equates to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average:

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In the W. Pacific.... yet another significant typhoon is forming -- "Megi".  At this early juncture the storm is forecast to near recently typhoon-battered Taiwan early next week.

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