"Talking the Tropics With Mike": "Cindy" aiming for the Gulf Coast - June 21st

June 21, 2017 — "Cindy" moving toward the Gulf Coast... "Bret" has dissipated......

Impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga from either system.: Zero.

Tropical storm "Cindy" is over the Northern Gulf of Mexico south & southwest of New Orleans & continues to be heavily weighted on the right side - in other words, most of the heavy rain, squalls & storms are over the eastern portion of the center making for what looks very much like a hybrid or subtropical system.

It is somewhat historical to have two named storms in the Atlantic Basin at the same time during June (as was the case for a few hour Tue. afternoon).  According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St., June 1909, 1959 & 1968 had two tropical cyclones at the same time.  And while June is -- on average -- not a real active month for the Atlantic Basin averaging 1 named storm every other month... the last 2 June's have been the opposite with 3 named storms last year in June... & 2 as recently as 2013 & 2012.  "Cindy" is our third tropical cyclone prior to June 20th which has only been matched or exceeded 4 other times in modern history - 1887, 1959, 2012 & 2016.

As for track.... forecast models have come into excellent agreement on a landfall Wed. night/Thu. morning near the Texas/Louisiana border between two strong upper level highs - the sprawling Bermuda high over the Central/Western Atlantic & a building ridge over the SW U.S.

This system will not have a direct impact on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.  Scattered heavy tropical-like rains will occur through Thu. with or without a direct tropical storm hit.  The heaviest rain will be closer to the low from the Florida Panhandle west to Texas where total rainfall will exceed a foot along with a threat for isolated tornadoes.  Tropical storm WATCHES & WARNINGS extend from the upper Texas coast to the Al/Fl. border.

Spaghetti plots for "Cindy":

Gulf of Mexico satellite imagery shows an exposed circulation center (the convection does not wrap around the center):

Water vapor imagery below indicates dry air wrapping into the circulation of "Cindy".  The combination of this dry air & strong shear from the southwest will limit any further intensification &, in fact, may cause weakening upon approach to land.

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

"Bret" in the SE Caribbean is nothing more than an open (tropical) wave moving steadily W/NW - no regeneration is expected:

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Heavy rain for much of the eastern half of the U.S. this week.... particularly near the Gulf Coast as tropical moisture surges north in association with the Gulf tropical disturbance.  Rainfall could reach 15"! near New Orleans with 4-6"+ north into Tennessee & parts of the Ohio Valley.  Major flooding is a concern this week along the I-10 corridor from the Fl. Panhandle to Texas as well as the Southern Appalachians & Smokey Mountains west to the Mississippi River which includes many summer tourist spots... & north to the Ohio River.....

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Meanwhile....  tropical storm "Bret" was shredded - as expected - by strong shear & has degenerated into a tropical wave that is moving steadily W/NW.  Strong shear will persist so no redevelopment is expected.

Spaghetti plots for wave "Bret":

Eastern Atlantic:

An analysis of wind shear shows why significant strengthening has been -- & will be -- difficult for tropical waves.  Shear exceeds 50 knots across much of the Caribbean & Central Atlantic but has weakened - in general - over the Gulf.  But close proximity of dry air will still likely limit "Cindy's" intensity:

Cox Media Group