"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Powerful "Fernanda" over E. Pacific - July 15th

July 15, 2017 — A very weak tropical wave is over the Gulf of Mexico... a tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean but neither of these waves are likely to develop as they move to the west/northwest....

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows a well established "blob" of African Saharan dust (orange & red) continues over the Central & especially E. Atlantic - an indication of the dry air.

The Gulf of Mexico... Caribbean & SW Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Wind shear analysis - pretty harsh across the Central Atlantic & much of the Caribbean (typical for July):

Tropical waves are moving off the coast of Africa but are not particularly impressive.  The area is largely being held in check by the Saharan dust plume alluded to earlier.... & the "popcorn" type cloud cover from 10 to 30 degrees N (also visible in the 4 image from the top) is indicative of stable air.  The overall environment for tropical cyclones over the deep tropics will become more conducive for tropical development the last 10-12 days of July, so the Central Atlantic will remain an area to watch.

In the E. Pacific.... powerful hurricane "Fernanda" is over open water & will move steadily west then west/northwest.

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July hurricane landfalls are not real common anywhere in the U.S. & that's certainly true for Florida. The Texas coastline is the most favored area this time of the season.  Map courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU....

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