"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Wave into the SW Gulf of Mexico - June 24th

June 24, 2016 — The tropical wave over the Caribbean has moved across the Yucatan Peninsula & will now cross the Bay of Campeche -- the SW Gulf of Mexico -- through Fri. night. The short trek across warm water coupled with a good deal of shear seems likely to limit any development. Movement will be to the west or west/northwest taking the wave far to the south of Texas & certainly no local impacts.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is reasonably quiet. The GFS model continues to show some long range potential for development over the Gulf of Mexico but seriously lacks consistency while the European model shows no such thing... at least yet. Conditions look to become generally more favorable over the Atlantic Basin from about July 10th onward.