JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Early voting statistics have some political strategists predicting the 2026 Election could be the most competitive Florida has seen in nearly a decade.
Polling shows Republican candidates for Governor and US Senate up heading into Election Day, but voter turnout up to this point has Democrats entering the final stretch with optimism.
“The things that have to be in place for us to have a shot going into Tuesday are largely in place,” said Democratic strategist Steve Schale.
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Schale, who worked on President Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns, noted Republicans head into Election Day with a vote advantage of about 130,000.
But compared to 2022 and 2024, Schale argued it is not an insurmountable lead.
“The thing that’s kept this interesting is Democrats keep turning out, and independents, more infrequent voters. And if that continues into tomorrow then I think, you know, we could be trending towards a model of a pretty competitive election,” said Schale.
Florida GOP Chair Evan Power said he’s not reading too much into the dip in Republican turnout this cycle and is banking on Election Day turnout to pad the current lead.
“You know, in the post-COVID period, every election has been a little different. We’re confident that we’ll turn out our voters tomorrow. You see more than a million Republican voters at the polls, you know we’re having a good day,” said Power.
Schale said even if Democrats don’t pull out statewide victories Tuesday night, he believes this will likely be the most competitive election since at least 2018.
And he argued that when elections become more competitive, that puts pressure on those in power to be more responsive to the needs of voters, regardless of who wins.
“And going forward, there’s a lot of reasons to think Florida will be more competitive again. And I think for voters, that’s a good thing,” said Schale.
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