Five months ago, President Donald Trump was stinging from one of the first political defeats of his second term as Republican state senators defied him on redistricting in Indiana. Now he has proved he can still punish wayward party members after he endorsed a slate of challengers who defeated almost every one of the lawmakers he wanted to dislodge.
But that success may not help Republicans' odds in November's midterm elections, when Trump's sagging poll numbers, lingering inflation and frustration over the war with Iran have boosted Democrats' chance of retaking control of Congress. Some Republicans are worried that intraparty fights are costing time and money that should be focused on defending their majorities in Washington.
“Every dollar going toward keeping seats we already have, and not winning ones we don’t, really matters,” said Rick Tyler, a Republican strategist who has been critical of the president.
However, Trump doesn't seem to have any second thoughts about purging his party of dissenters. Indiana's primary will likely bolster his confidence in other primaries this month, as he tries to oust U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky.
It also ratchets up the pressure on Republican lawmakers in other states to move aggressively to redraw congressional district boundaries this year. Alabama and Tennessee have already begun special sessions that could limit Black voters' strength in Democratic-leaning districts, and some of Trump's allies in South Carolina want to follow suit.
State Sen. Linda Rogers, one of the Indiana lawmakers who voted against redistricting and lost her seat Tuesday, said the outcome of this week's primary “will probably discourage others in other states.”
“If someone is going to ask you to take a tough vote, you may think twice about your conscience and what’s best for your community and instead what’s best for you and your career,” she said.
Indiana Gov. Mike Braun, who sided with Trump, said it was a “historic night” and he thanked Republican voters who “stood with me and President Trump to nominate some great America First conservatives.”
Trump started the redistricting competition
Redistricting efforts began last year when Trump saw an opportunity to give Republicans an additional edge. Indiana stood out as a Republican-run state that declined to give Trump what he wanted, even as GOP- and Democratic-led states traded gerrymandering maneuvers in a national competition.
After the Indiana Senate rejected the redistricting plan in December, Trump pledged to punish defiant lawmakers. His allies spent more than $8.3 million on races that usually see very little spending.
Andy Zay, a state senator who voted for redistricting, resigned in January to become chair of a state utility commission. He was a target of harassment and threats in the months leading up to the vote, and he said Trump's influence and heavy spending made it tough for incumbents to hang on in the primaries.
“Trump matters and money matters,” he said.
Five of Trump's targets lost their races. One won. One race was too close to call.
Trump allies celebrated the results and warned other Republicans who might be thinking of opposing the president.
“Redistrict ASAP for the November election or you face a real risk of losing your seat. No excuses,” Robby Starbuck, a conservative activist, wrote on social media. “Reschedule primaries if you must but redraw the map. Voters demand action NOW, not weakness.”
Redistricting efforts were supercharged last week when the U.S. Supreme Court gutted a provision of the Voting Rights Act that influenced how political lines are drawn in areas with large nonwhite populations.
James Blair, one of Trump’s top political advisers, posted an image from the movie “Gladiator” depicting Russell Crowe’s ancient Roman character Maximus exulting after a combat victory.
In Congress, Massie and Cassidy have stood up to Trump
Trump himself was relatively restrained on social media. He shared a series of photos celebrating the victories of candidates he endorsed in Indiana and Ohio, which also held primaries Tuesday. But he otherwise passed on boasting or renewing his attacks on Massie or Cassidy.
Massie has been among the members of Congress who frustrated the president by pressing for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein case files, challenging Trump for taking military action in Iran without congressional approval, and voting against the party’s sweeping tax-and-budget bill last year.
“I vote with the Republican Party and this president 90% of the time, and the 10% of the time that I’m not voting with the party or the president, I’m keeping the promises that the president and I campaigned on,” Massie recently told Kentucky's PBS affiliate.
Explaining his vote against Trump's signature domestic achievement, Massie called it “a big spending bill” and said he has voted consistently “not to bankrupt this country.”
Trump has endorsed Massie's challenger, retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, and campaigned for him before the May 19 primary. In Louisiana, Trump backs Rep. Julie Letlow over Cassidy in their May 16 primary, which includes a third candidate, state Treasurer John Fleming.
Cassidy was among the Republican senators who voted to convict Trump on 2021 impeachment charges after the Jan. 6 riot. But he also has given Trump consistent support. Most notably, the Baton Rouge physician advanced Robert Kennedy Jr.'s controversial nomination as Trump's health secretary.
The two-term incumbent is campaigning aggressively against Trump's chosen candidate without mentioning the president in his attacks on Letlow.
“Sen. Cassidy is running like he's 10 points down and is pounding the pavement every day,” Cassidy campaign manager Katie Larkin said in a statement.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., noted Wednesday that Trump has gone after Massie before, only for the congressman to win reelection.
“Thomas Massie has been very popular in his district,” McCarthy said during a “Fox & Friends” interview. Still, he warned, it is not an ideal situation for any Republican to run without Trump's backing.
Indiana shows how far Trump will go to purge GOP
It is unusual for a sitting president to be focused on attacking and defeating his own party members this deep into a midterm election year. And it's yielded notable spending that is not directed at Democrats. In Louisiana, Letlow, Cassidy, and other campaign organizations have plowed more than $28 million into attack ads.
“It's a lot of dollars spent on taking on fellow Republicans,” said Marc Short, who worked for former Vice President Mike Pence, a onetime Indiana governor.
Short said it wasn't clear that Trump's involvement would help Republicans' chances in November.
“There've been questions before, when he engages in these inner-party contests, will they work out as well when we get to the general election?”
Rogers, the Indiana state senator, faced almost $670,000 in television ads against her, funded by political action committees associated with Braun and U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind.
Yet even in defeat, she said she does not regret her vote against redistricting.
“It would have been easy for me to hit that ‘yes’ button,” she said. “To hear the number of people who asked me not to, then the number of people who thanked me, would mean I wasn’t representing them.”
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Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa, and Barrow from Atlanta.
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This story has been corrected to reflect that Andy Zay, while in the Indiana state Senate, had voted for redistricting.