ROME — Italy's conservative Premier Giorgia Meloni faces a pivotal political test in a two-day referendum on judicial reform that starts Sunday, a vote that has transformed into a broader judgment on her leadership at home and abroad.
Originally presented as a technical overhaul of the justice system, the reform has sharpened political divisions and unified the center‑left opposition, turning the referendum into a symbolic showdown on Meloni’s strength one year ahead of national elections.
Recent polls show the race remains too close to call, with the “No” camp gaining late momentum in a polarized climate where turnout may prove decisive.
Lorenzo Pregliasco, political analyst and polling expert at YouTrend, said a rejection of the reform would carry significant political weight.
“A possible ‘No’ victory would send a political signal, weakening Meloni’s aura of invincibility, while pushing the center-left opposition to say that there is already an alternative in the country,” he told The Associated Press.
Meloni raises the stakes
Meloni initially avoided tying her image too closely to the referendum, wary of the danger that a defeat could weaken her domestically and abroad.
She currently presides over Italy’s most stable government in years, after gaining credibility among her European allies as a charismatic leader. A referendum win would further strengthen her tenure at home, alongside her international standing.
That's why, as the vote neared and polls tightened, the Italian premier shifted strategy and fully embraced the “Yes” campaign.
Meloni has sharpened her rhetoric, accusing parts of the judiciary of hindering government work on migration and security, and warning that failure to pass the reform would strengthen unaccountable judicial “factions” and endanger citizens’ safety.
“If the reform doesn’t pass this time, we will probably not have another chance,” she said at a campaign event last week. “We will find ourselves with even more powerful factions, even more negligent judges, even more surreal sentences, immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, drug dealers being freed and putting your security at risk.”
Her stark warnings have drawn fierce criticism from magistrates and the center-left, who argue that the reforms would erode judicial independence and undermine constitutional guarantees.
The ‘Trump risk’
Analysts say the referendum carries international implications as well.
Meloni's long standing alignment with U.S. President Donald Trump, once politically advantageous, has become increasingly problematic as his foreign policy — particularly the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran — faces growing disapproval among Italians.
“Meloni is facing what I would call the ‘Trump risk’ — which is appearing too subservient to the U.S. president, who is an extremely unpopular political leader in Italy and the rest of Europe and generates a lot of distrust, even among center-right voters,” Pregliasco said.
A defeat in the referendum would not force Meloni to resign — her mandate runs through 2027 and she repeatedly pledged to complete it — but could diminish her credibility within the European Union, where she is viewed as a stabilizing actor in an often politically volatile environment.
A long running clash
The referendum centers on long debated reforms aimed at reshaping the structure of Italy’s judiciary.
A key measure includes separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors, preventing them from switching roles — something that is currently allowed but rarely practiced.
Another major change concerns the High Judicial Council, which oversees magistrates’ appointments and disciplinary matters. The reform proposes splitting it into three separate chambers and altering how members are chosen, replacing internal elections with selections by lottery from eligible judges and prosecutors.
The clash between Italy’s right-wing leaders and magistrates has punctuated Italian politics, exploding during the governments of late conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi, who was one of the staunchest supporters of the judicial reform.
Supporters argue the changes will modernize an infamously slow court system and enhance accountability. But critics, including prominent magistrates, say the reform misses the real priorities while threatening the judiciary’s independence.
Nicola Gratteri, Naples’ chief prosecutor and a long time anti-Mafia magistrate, offered one of the most pointed rebukes.
“I don’t think this government has implemented the reforms needed to make trials work more effectively," he told the AP. “Instead, it has made it virtually impossible to combat crimes against the public administration and to tackle white-collar abuse and corruption.”
As Italians prepare to vote, the referendum stands as one of the defining moments of Meloni's premiership — a choice that could reshape not only the justice system but also the trajectory of her government, regardless of the outcome.