Feb. 20, 2019 — NOAA has officially declared the El Nino underway (advisory). In other words, the criteria has been met which is warmer than avg. water temps. by at least 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees F) for five consecutive 3- month overlapping periods near the equatorial Pacific. However, the warming is just barely 0.5 degrees C & is not met across the entier ENSO region so this is a weak El Nino.
Forecast models predict the El Nino to slowly wane into the summer.
Meanwhile.... we can get a daily weather report on Mars!.... thanks to NASA's InSight lander which has two weather sensors on each side - for wind & temp. Mars' weather is harsh to say the least with recent temperatures reaching highs near zero but lows as cold as 140 degrees below zero F! Images below from NASA/JPL-Caltech:
Since the El Nino is weak, global weather implications are not as strong nor as consistent as would occur with a stronger El Nino. But still some wetter than average conditions can be expected from California eastward along the Gulf Coast into spring. The weak El Nino will not likely be a significant factor during the upcoming hurricane season. El Nino winters are often relatively mild but this one - 2018-'19 - has been downright warm despite the late Jan. arctic outbreak & especially warm for Jacksonville & much of the Southeast U.S. Image below courtesy SERCC:
Speaking of which.... I've posted - with the help of the creative Nora Clark from the Action News Jax digital team - a podcast from my recent visit to ground zero, hurricane Michael - go ** here **.... ** here ** for pics & details in the "Buresh Blog".