Sept. 13, 2018 — Daily updates: "Talking the Tropics With Mike"....
The week has been dominated by hurricane Florence. By Thursday, the tropical cyclone had been named 13 days which tied the longest lasting named storm from last year - "Irma". Florence went through a number of interesting structural changes on its way to the Carolina's. The storm is likely to be most remembered - & could go down in the history books - for its storm surge & especially torrential rain.
We saw at least two eyewall replacement cycles. This occurs when mature, strong hurricanes have an outer wall develop which cuts off the updrafts & moisture supply from the original (inner) eye. The hurricane weakens during this process until the replacement cycle is completed. Then - if all other conditions are favorable - the hurricane may again intensify.
Lucky for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.... we were on the subsident or dry side of Florence. The atmosphere has to compensate for the massive updrafts in & near a hurricane, so that balance is massive sinking (descending) air on the far fringe of a hurricane. The result is sunny, breezy, dry weather.
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Proximity & location in relation to the eye of a hurricane makes a world of difference. Fri., Sept. 14th in Jacksonville, NC vs. Jacksonville, FL:
What a forecast from the National Hurricane Center! Below.... the image on the left is the landfall forecast from Sun., 09/09 for Fri. .... the image on the right is 7:15am Fri., 09/14 - the actual landfall. Plenty of time for preps & evacuations. Admittedly intensity was off (forecast was Cat. 3/4) - which is the toughest nut to crack in the forecast/research world - but the message was out way in advance of an historic storm - at least from a water standpoint.
The photo below is from 30 years ago & was shown during the past week on WHO-TV in Des Moines, Iowa - that's yours truly on the far left. Next to me is Ed Wilson who is celebrating his 30 year on the air in Des Moines. Good memories! :)